Tour Confidential: Answering every critical Ryder Cup question

Check in every week for the unfiltered opinions of our writers and editors as they break down the hottest topics in the sport, and join the conversation by tweeting us at @golf_com. This week, we discuss the biggest Ryder Cup storylines, who is the most important player for each side and pick a winner.

After two years of waiting, Ryder Cup week is finally here. The U.S. squad is hosting Europe at Bethpage Black on Long Island, Friday through Sunday, as the Europeans will attempt to win two in a row and be the first road team to win since it did so in 2012. Lots to unpack here, but let’s start with an easy one: What’s your top storyline for the 45th Ryder Cup?

Josh Sens, senior writer (@joshsens): The over-the-top atmosphere of the Ryder Cup is not a new story, but as our man Alan Bastable explained in a fun piece a few days ago, this week stands to take things to an entirely different level. The potential for boisterousness spilling over into ugliness seems ripe, which ties into what I think is another important theme: on paper, at least, the Europeans appear to be the slightly stronger team. But playing an away game makes them the underdogs, which takes some pressure off them and piles it on the Americans. In that sense, it’s fair to wonder whether having the home crowd behind them and all the expectations that come with that might work against Keegan and Co. How that dynamic does or doesn’t play out will be key to the final result. 

Josh Schrock, news editor (@Schrock_And_Awe): Agree with Sens. I think the Bethpage crowd will certainly get top billing as storyline 1A entering the week. I’ll offer how Rory McIlroy finishes a storybook year. He laid out three goals to accomplish for the rest of his career in January and knocked off one with his win at the Masters. After a summer spent in malaise, McIlroy won the Irish Open and now can finish off the year by leading the Europeans to an away win. Very interested to see how McIlroy elevates his game this week.

Alan Bastable, executive editor (@alan_bastable): The importance of experience in Ryder Cups is probably overstated, but it’s hard not to ponder the imbalance of rookies on the two sides: four on the U.S. team (Ben Griffin, Russell Henley, J.J. Spaun, and Cameron Young) vs. just one on the European squad (Rasmus Højgaard). For the American team to prevail, at least a couple of those newbies will need to rise to the occasion. Have a sneaking suspicion Cameron Young will embrace the moment, and not just because he’s the only New Yorker on the team. You know he can pound it, but now he’s also figured out how to putt it (he’s 5th in SG: Putting this season). Keep an eye on CY.

After winning in Rome in 2023, Rory McIlroy said winning an away Ryder Cup is one of golf’s biggest accomplishments, adding, “and that’s what we’re going to do at Bethpage.” He’s since added a Masters title and career Grand Slam to his resume. What would a Ryder Cup victory at Bethpage do for McIlroy’s legacy?

Sens:  I consider Ryder Cup legacies a separate category. Think of Ian Poulter, whose individual Tour career does not stand out but who will go down forever as a Ryder Cup killer. Or, conversely, Tiger Woods, whose less-than-impressive Ryder Cup record does nothing to diminish his status in the game. At this point, Rory’s legacy seems pretty well established. A dominant week at Bethpage could add a nice gloss to it, especially if he pulls off something heroic like beating Scottie Scheffler in Sunday singles for the clinching point. Short of that, though, I don’t expect this week to alter how future generations think of him.

Schrock: I mostly agree with Sens, but I do think if McIlroy leads the Euros to a win by playing all five sessions while racking up 4-5 points, it will be another critical line in the resume he’s building to become the best European golfer of all-time.

Bastable: Rory’s already in rarified Ryder Cup air. But a big haul this week would elevate him into even more elite company. Three points would move him ahead of Jose Maria Olazabal on the all-time points list. Four would tie him with Nick Faldo. Four and a half would tie him with — gasp! — Seve. But beyond however this week could influence McIlroy’s individual status in the record books, he so obviously is burning for a win, period. As mentioned above, on several occasions this year he has reminded us that winning a road-game Ryder Cup is one of the most difficult tasks in all of sports. If Europe somehow pulls it off, Rory will declare 2025 the undisputed greatest season of his career.

Who is the most important — if not necessarily the best — player for each team?

Sens: McIlroy for the Europeans. He’s not just the best player on the team but he’s also the obvious team-room leader. How he fares stands to be infectious for the rest of the squad. The U.S. team is a different story, I think, because the best player, Scheffler, isn’t a rah-rah guy. I don’t see him being as much of a bellwether as McIlroy. I think the key players for the U.S. are Ryder Cup rookies like Ben Griffin and J.J. Spaun — great talents who are entirely untested in a setting like this.

Bastable: No love for Bryson?! If DeChambeau can get it going, he has the potential to electrify the U.S. fans in a way that none of his teammates can match. Trouble is, he has not been in top form. I’m intrigued to see what version of BDC we’ll see. On the Euro side, Bobby Mac might end up being the MVP no one saw coming.

The Americans will win if… 

Sens: …rookies like Spaun and Griffin hold up in the crucible, and Patrick Cantlay annoys the opposition enough to put them off their game.

Schrock: …Justin Thomas, after a poor start in Napa, reawakens. I expect Scheffler to play well, especially after the egg he laid in Rome. But Thomas has been the Americans’ heart and soul when they’ve dominated. They’ll need Thomas and the Cantlay-Schauffele pairing to help lead, along with Scheffler. 

Bastable: …Keegan Bradley reconsiders, dumps one of his rooks and suits up in the first match Friday. I kid! But yes, as covered, some of the U.S. rookies will absolutely need to show out. Scheffler will need to win at least 3.5 points. And Sam Burns will need to bring his putter.

Which means the Europeans will win if… 

Sens: …McIlroy leads them to a hot start and the momentum builds. The pressure is really on the Americans here. They’re expected to ride the homefield advantage to the win, but there’s nothing easy about having to drain a crucial putt in front of a huge crowd whose hopes are riding so vocally on you.

Schrock: …Rory does Rory things. When he is clicking, they are hard to beat.

Bastable: …Jon Rahm antagonizes the crowds and Tommy Fleetwood charms ’em. (And they each collect at least 3 points.)

What will be the most crucial strategic decision each captain will have to make?

Sens: Aside from selecting captain’s picks, I think the importance of a captain’s decisions is wildly overstated. They’ve already studied the personalities and the analytics. They know, in theory at least, which players should mesh. The captains’ most important roles are to select the rosters and create an atmosphere/culture that allows their players to play their best. Seems like Bradley and Donald have both already done that. As always, this will come down to which guys make the big putts.

Schrock: For the Americans, it’s who plays with Bryson DeChambeau. Given that he and Cam Young play the same prototype ball, that would seem to be the proper pairing, but I’m interested to see how Keegan Bradley deploys what should be one of his best weapons. 

Luke Donald said he planned to mix things up from Rome, but I have a hard time seeing the foursomes pairings not being Rahm-Hatton, Hovland-Åberg, McIlroy-Fleetwood and a fourth. I’m interested to see if Donald changes things up on Day 1 or trots out his proven pairings that dominated in Rome to start. 

Bastable: Hate to harp on the rookies, but managing them will be Keegan’s toughest task given they represent a third of his team. For Donald, it’ll be keeping his boys from getting rattled by the fire-breathing galleries. If his squad can block out the noise and get comfortable early, look out.

And drumroll, please… who will win the 2025 Ryder Cup and why? (And give us a score!)

Sens: This one ends up in a tie, 14-14, with the Europeans retaining the Cup.

Schrock: Europe. 15.5-12.5, thanks to a Sunday singles comeback. Fleetwood beats Bryson to clinch the away win. 

Bastable: Dare I make it a clean European sweep? I do dare! Europe 14.5, USA 13.5, in a thriller for the ages.

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