Ryder Cup captain’s picks tiers: Who should be in? Who needs help?

Finally, after months of on-course jockeying, off-course politicking and endless speculation, it’s time for Keegan Bradley to make his decision.

On Wednesday, Bradley will make six captain’s picks for the 2025 Ryder Cup to round out the American Roster. Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau, Russell Henley, Harris English and J.J. Spaun automatically qualified for the roster, leaving a host of talented Americans vying for the final six spots.

First, a look at the Ryder Cup points standings and where the contenders finished when the bell rang after the BMW Championship.

7. Justin Thomas 10467.26 points
8. Collin Morikawa 10049.44
9. Ben Griffin 9745.76
10. Maverick McNealy 8913.65
11. Keegan Bradley 8435.00
12. Brian Harman 7466.91
13. Andrew Novak 7300.48
14. Cameron Young 7209.64
15. Patrick Cantlay 6716.39
16. Sam Burns 6688.29

Other notable names:

17. Wyndham Clark 5216.87
30. Rickie Fowler 3802.26
32. Jordan Spieth 3688.47

Bradley’s biggest dilemma will be whether or not he elects to pick himself to be the first playing captain since Arnold Palmer in 1963. Bradley seemed like a surefire pick after he won the Travelers Championship in June, but a run of scratchy form put that in limbo. A T7 finish this past week at the Tour Championship might be enough to allow Bradley to pick himself.

The American captain opened eyes Sunday when he told Golf Channel’s Todd Lewis that there will be “a few guys” who think they will be on the team but won’t.

So let’s get into the contenders and whether or not they should be (and will be) at Bethpage Black in September.

Likely locks

Justin Thomas
Patrick Cantlay

Thomas finished seventh in points and has performed well in the Ryder Cup (7-4-2 record). Thomas is a foundational piece of Team USA and has found his game after slumping in 2023 and 2024. Per Data Golf, Thomas ranks fifth on the PGA Tour this season in True Strokes Gained (+1.69 per round). That trails only Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood and Henley. If you add in the LIV Golf numbers, it also trails Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau and Joaquin Niemann. Still, Thomas has now been a top-10 player for almost a full calendar year. He will be at Bethpage.

While Cantlay failed to win on the PGA Tour this season, he finished ranked sixth in True Strokes Gained, right behind Thomas, and has a 5-2-1 record in the Ryder Cup. He has been the 11th-best American in strokes gained over the last three months and the ninth-best over the last six.

Is probably on the team, but maybe shouldn’t be

Collin Morikawa

Morkawa got hot to start the season and had the Arnold Palmer Invitational in his grasp before Henley ran him down over the final few holes to nab the trophy. Since that loss at Bay Hill, Morikawa has just two top-10 finishes. Those came at the Players and the Rocket Classic. At the majors, Morikawa was a non-factor, going T14-T50-T23-CUT in the biggest events.

There’s also the fact that he had the worst putting season of his career this year, it isn’t a great course fit for Bethpage and his confidence level isn’t the same with his irons.

“It’s weird, but I feel like my irons need to get better,” Morikawa said on Sunday after the Tour Championship. “I know my numbers from a numerical strokes gained look fine, but I should be able to step on 15 tee here and aim in the left edge of the water and know that ball is never going there. [On] 17, I had pitching wedge to a back pin, hit it left in the bunker. Those are just shots that right now for quite some time now that I am just hitting. I hate doing that. Just got to keep digging.”

Despite all of that, it feels like Morikawa, a two-time major champion with Ryder Cup experience, is likely to be on the team. But perhaps he’s part of the chaos Bradley promised to Lewis.

Should be on the team, but might not be

Ben Griffin

Griffin has been one of the 10 best American golfers this year. He won the Charles Schwab Challenge, combined with Novak to win the Zurich Classic, ranked 11th on the PGA Tour on True Strokes Gained, and has been the third-best American over the past three months. Griffin had two top-10 finishes in majors and posted 12 top-15 finishes in his last 14 starts.

Everything points to Griffin being a worthy selection, but he would be a Ryder Cup rookie and Bradley is expected to want to bring a veteran group to Bethpage Black. Bradley’s claim to Lewis that people who expect to be on the team won’t be puts Griffin’s status in doubt, but he should be on the team.

Should be on the team, but might only have room for one

Cameron Young
Sam Burns

Young has turned his season around over the last few months. Over his last eight starts, he has five top-five finishes, including a win at the Wyndham Championship. He has been one of the best putters on the PGA Tour this season, is a great course fit for Bethpage and has good history at the course, winning the 2017 New York State Open there as an amateur. Young has the length off the tee to be a weapon at Bethpage and his improved putting will be a boon in match play. Young has been the fourth-best American in strokes gained over the last three months.

Burns was a poor Sunday at Oakmont (and some bad breaks) from winning the U.S. Open. He is the best putter per strokes gained this year, and we already know that he meshes well with Scheffler as a pairing. He has been the sixth-best American in strokes gained over the past three months and the eighth-best over the last calendar year.

In a year in which the captain wasn’t thinking of picking himself, both Young and Burns would have a good chance to make the team. As it stands now, if Bradley picks himself, there’s a chance that only one of these two will make the trip to New York.

Needs help

Maverick McNealy

McNealy had the best year of his career. He made 20 out of 24 cuts, posted seven top-10 finishes and was the runner-up at the Genesis Invitational. He finished 10th in the points standings and was 25th on the PGA Tour in True Strokes Gained. But he didn’t win, would be a Ryder Cup rookie and didn’t flash at any of the majors (T32-T33-37-T23). It’s probably not going to go McNealy’s way.

You want chaos?

Jordan Spieth
Rickie Fowler

Neither Speith nor Fowler has played well enough this season to garner serious interest. But for an outfit that has often resorted to picking players in the “boys club,” Spieth and Fowler are at least on the periphery of the radar.

Fowler has been the 12th-best American over the last three months, per strokes gained. He played well at the two playoff events he qualified for and finished T14 at the Open. But his Ryder Cup record is not good (3-9-5) and he doesn’t rank inside the top 30 in any true strokes gained metric for the entire season. It’s not going to happen.

Spieth made the Ryder Cup his goal after returning from offseason wrist surgery. There were some good moments, but the play was inconsistent at best and the finishes were unspectacular. Per strokes gained data, Spieth has been the 11th-best American over the past 12 months, but that shouldn’t be enough to put him on the team.

And yet, crazier things have happened.

He’s going to do it

Keegan Bradley

Bradley admitted his decision about whether or not to pick himself to be the first playing captain since Palmer has weighed on him. At the Tour Championship, Bradley said he wished he could call Palmer to ask for advice on what to do.

“I think no matter what decision that I make here, I could have gone the other way easily, no matter what,” Bradley said after his T7 finish in the 30-man field at the Tour Championship. “The only thing I care about is on Sunday of the Ryder Cup, that we win the Ryder Cup. Then I’ll know I made the right decision.”

Prior to his T17 at the 50-man BMW Championship, Bradley hadn’t had a top 25 since his win at the Travelers. He ranks 10th on the PGA Tour in True Strokes Gained this year and is sixth in tee to green. He has been the seventh-best American, per strokes gained, in the last three months and fifth-best in the last calendar year.

It’s a big decision, but as our Dylan Dethier wrote, Bradley only has to answer one question to put himself on the team.

Predictions

Justin Thomas
Patrick Cantlay
Keegan Bradley
Collin Morikawa
Ben Griffin
Cameron Young

While I think Griffin’s spot is in real danger, I’m going to put him on the team. Morikawa will make it off pedigree. Bradley will pick himself and take Young as the 12th, leaving Burns at home as the bubble boy who missed out.