The life of being on the radar, for someone previously under it, has taken some recalibration.
“It’s been crazy, yeah, just kind of thrown into the spotlight, thrown into a different territory than what I’ve been accustomed to,” J.J. Spaun said. “So it’s been a little — it’s been fun, but also a challenge at the same time trying to balance, like, what’s it like to be an elite golfer now — considered an elite golfer now. A little bit of a disorienting kind of situation for me. I’ve always kind of been the underdog, one that’s been able to hide in the shadows and background and stuff, but now it’s, like, at the start of the year it was, like, this guy’s got to show up, this guy’s got to — you know, he’s a top-10 player in the world. Like, this guy’s got to be playing good.
“So I put too much pressure on myself to start the year based off of what I did last year. But try to let it go and remember that I can play really well if I just get out of my own way. Kind of relaxing and trying not to control the outcome too much has really helped me settle down kind of the start of the spring here.”
This week at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, Spaun returns to where he broke through a year ago — the U.S. Open. Prior to last year’s win at Oakmont, he’d won just once, and according to golfodds.com, he started the tournament at 150-1 odds. But he finished the week as the only player under par, he’s since won again, and, as he noted, he’s a top 10 player in the world.
The question is then, could last year’s sleeper winner repeat? In U.S. Open history, there have been only seven players who have gone back-to-back.
Then again, Spaun did say that Shinnecock reminded him a bit of Oakmont.
“I think it will be cool,” he said of defending. “I only defended once. It was just — it almost seems like a homecoming. You kind of like relive your success, and everyone’s kind of like happy to see you, and people want to talk to you and there’s a lot of attention and focus on you.
“But yeah, I don’t know. I think it’s something that I got to enjoy, because I don’t think a lot of guys, I mean, it’s hard to be able to defend a major championship or, I mean, a major event. So I’m just going to try to enjoy it, continue to work hard and stick to my process and add ’em up at the end and see what happens.”
With that, members of our staff have each made a long-shot selection below to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish.
On to our analysis.
2026 U.S. Open sleeper picks to watch
PGA Tour golfers aren’t the only ones who can make some 💰 starting next Thursday. You can too! Here are a few tips. https://t.co/uldLYRZvRh
Sleeper pick: Adam Scott, +10,000. He didn’t play in the 1896 U.S. Open at Shinny — it just feels that way. Look for Scotty to make some noise in what will be his 100th (!) major start.
Josh Berhow
Sleeper pick: Cameron Smith, +8,000. Again, back to those tricky conditions, which shouldn’t scare off Cam Smith. He’s had a rough couple of years but showed us at the PGA Championship that he still has the ability to take it low.
Adam Christensen
Sleeper pick: Alex Fitzpatrick +9,000. Before last week’s Canadian Open, Alex Fitzpatrick played five PGA Tour events this season and finished inside the top 10 four times, three of which at tournaments that were not all-out birdie fests. Confidence is huge, so for a long shot, I’ll take a guy riding higher than anyone else at this price point right now.
James Colgan
Sleeper pick: David Puig, +12,500. The last time the U.S. Open went to Shinnecock, we witnessed an all-time final round by a young, ascending player with all-world ability. His name was Tommy Fleetwood. He tied for second, but the performance is etched into my memory of the kind of brilliance that can come from brashness under the Shinny spotlight. I like Puig’s chances.
Jack Hirsh
Sleeper pick: Sahith Theegala, +15,000, Are we serious with these odds? Sahith had a bad year in 2025 but has responded with multiple top-10s so far this year. I could see him putting it all together at a U.S. Open setup that rewards great wedge play.
Jessica Marksbury
Sleeper pick: Russell Henley, +4,500. These odds are a tad bit strong for a true sleeper, but I like Henley’s credentials heading into the Open. He’s the most accurate driver on Tour, and hitting fairways will be huge at Shinnecock. Plus, he’s in the midst of an awesome season, with a win at the Charles Schwab Challenge and four top-10 finishes and nine top-25s in 13 events.
Zephyr Melton
Sleeper pick: Shane Lowry, +6,600. Does Shane Lowry qualify as a sleeper? Whatever. It’ll be windy, so those links-golf skills should come in handy. I can see the Irishman making a run.
Jake Morrow
Sleeper pick: Sungjae Im, +12,500. He’s playing better golf than people may think, and the course allows for more aggressive approach play, which is Sungjae’s sauce.
Nick Piastowski
Sleeper pick: Gary Woodland, +12,500. If you’ve read this space before, you’ll know I love a good storyline. And a Woodland win at the U.S. Open would be the best storyline.
Josh Schrock
Sleeper pick: Adam Scott +10,000. Playing in his 100th consecutive major, I expect Scott to play smart, disciplined golf and be a factor on the weekend. Outside of a missed cut at Aronimink, Scott has been playing well, including a tie for fourth at Doral and a tie for 12th at the Memorial. He was in the mix on Sunday at Oakmont last year and I think it’ll be a similar story on Long Island.
Johnny Wunder
Sleeper pick: David Puig, +12,500. This will be his coming-out party. Like Rahm, he’s an elite ball striker but may have the best short game in the world. He’s long, putts it great and if his iron play is in order, you will see his name right in the mix. This kid is a DAWG.
