2026 Open Championship expert picks to win, sleepers to watch at Royal Birkdale

Scottie Scheffler and a repeat. 

Rory McIlroy and a seventh major crown. 

A win by 40-somethings Justin Rose and Adam Scott. 

All would be interesting. All would be dramatic. But if you’re after the storyline at this year’s Open Championship at Royal Birkdale — and if you’re at all swayed by a narrative in betting — it’s Tommy Fleetwood and a homecoming. 

Growing up, Fleetwood lived near Birkdale, and he and his dad would often sneak on. In 1998 at Birkdale, 7-year-old Fleetwood attended his first Open. Nineteen years later, at the 2017 Open at Birkdale, Fleetwood was a crowd favorite and tied for 27th, and he will again be heavily backed this year, as he searches for his first major win, in front of his home supporters. He’s in decent form, too, having won last year’s Tour Championship and entering at No. 9 in the world ranking. 

“It’s probably my biggest dream in the game — to win that tournament,” Fleetwood told GOLF.com’s Sean Zak earlier this year — and Zak’s full story is well worth your time and can be found here. 

With that, members of our staff have each made a to-win and a sleeper selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish. 

On to our analysis.

Open Championship expert picks to win, sleepers for 2026

Alan Bastable 

To-win: Viktor Hovland, +3,300. Hovland has not played well in the majors this year. (He packed his bags on Friday at both the PGA Championship and U.S. Open.) But this week, he reverses the trend. Not only is he coming off a win at the Travelers and a tie for 13th at the Scottish, but in between his clunkers at Aronimink and Shinnecock, he also snuck in a third-place finish at the Canadian Open. His status as one of the game’s best iron players also will be a boon at Birkdale. Time to avenge Norway’s loss to England …

Sleeper pick: Ryan Fox, +15,000. The guy has a knack for playing tough setups well, with just two missed cuts in his past 14 major starts and top-35 finishes at both this year’s PGA Championship and U.S. Open. He hasn’t missed a cut since early April. I don’t see that streak ending this week and wouldn’t be stunned to see him raising the jug on Sunday.

Adam Christensen 

To-win: Chris Gotterup, +2,800. Gotterup is one of the most in-form golfers in the world right now. Nobody is having a better season outside the major championships, and he has shown the ability to bring his game across the pond. His wide-open, push-draw stance is unique, and his ability to vary his ball flights is incredibly fun to watch. Having his ticket when he is in contention coming down the stretch should be a great time. 

Sleeper pick: Alex Fitzpatrick +6,600. For the second straight major, my sleeper pick will be the younger Fitzpatrick. Royal Birkdale can be punishing off the tee, and his above-average driving accuracy and stellar approach play this season make him an intriguing pick at +6,600 for me. He did not have a great time at the Scottish Open but that let him get to the Open early and maybe that gives him the reset he needs to get in contention. 

James Colgan 

To-win: Tommy Fleetwood, +1,600. He’s far too popular a choice to actually win this golf tournament, especially not with his hometown coming just up the road. Players NEVER win the event they want to win above all the others. They NEVER do it in front of all their loved ones. And nope, they NEVER win in that setting for their first major. OK, have I done enough reverse-jinxing yet? Please let this one happen.

Sleeper pick: Rickie Fowler, +10,000. This would be a very, very nice story. And the past 50 years of Open Championship history at Royal Birkdale tells us the winner will be a familiar name. Rickie is the biggest familiar name at +10,000 or worse odds, so he’s the choice.

Alex Gelman 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +750. Scheffler is the pick to win the Open. After missing the cut last week for the first time in four years, expect the world No. 1 to respond. The value is too good to pass up. If everyone else wants to fade Scottie after one bad week, I’ll gladly back the best player in the world.

Sleeper pick: Jordan Spieth, +6,600. Spieth is finding himself as of late. He won the Open nine years ago at Royal Birkdale — why can’t he do it again? 

Jack Hirsh 

To win: Tommy Fleetwood, +1,600. Seems like everyone here is going for the best story and that would be Tommy Lad getting it done in his hometown. He finally got his first win last year. Has been playing just about as well as anyone without a win this season and finally got the putter heated up after a slow start to the year. This would be an all-time feel good one and there’s no way I’m picking against it.

Sleeper pick: Jordan Spieth, +6,600. This pick requires no further explanation. The heart wants what the heart wants.

Jessica Marksbury

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +750. I know, I KNOW. Picking the world No. 1 to win a major isn’t particularly edgy, but I think last week’s missed cut may actually turn out to be helpful for Scottie. Of course, he doesn’t have anything to prove and his results this year speak for themselves, but I’m banking on the fact that extra rest will combine with some additional competitive fire to result in a big-time performance this week.

Sleeper pick: Min Woo Lee, +5,500. Min Woo has been a bit hit and miss this season, with a number of top 10s and top 20s, but missed cuts at the Masters and U.S. Open. That said, he’s still in the midst of the most consistent season of his career, and given his runner-up finish in Scotland last week, I feel like he can ride this current wave of positive momentum into contention.

Maddi MacClurg  

To-win: Tommy Fleetwood, +1,600. Tommy Lad seems like the pick this week. He’s playing some of the best golf of his career with six top-10 finishes this season, and now the Open rolls into his backyard at Royal Birkdale. He grew up flighting shots into the blustery winds of links courses, and that’s exactly the kind of creativity this championship rewards. Add a massive home crowd behind him, and it feels like everything is lining up for Fleetwood to get his hands on the Claret Jug.

Nick Piastowski 

To-win: Ludvig Aberg, +2,800. He’s been solid all year, outside of average putting. He wins his first major this week. (And gives me back-to-back majors of picking the winner.) 

Sleeper pick: Maverick McNealy, +10,000. These are lovely odds for a player who’s missed just one cut this year and is one of golf’s best putters. 

Josh Schrock

To-win: Rory McIlroy +850. My heart tells me to take Tommy, but I keep thinking about Rory at Portrush in 2019, when the winning-at-home narrative was EVERYWHERE, and he blew it OB on the first hole and missed the cut. I don’t think Tommy will implode, but I don’t think he gets the major monkey off his back this time. Rory is playing good golf, he’s rested, and has been one of the best Open players of the past decade. He has handled this Masters victory better than his last and truly seems freed up. Major No. 7 incoming. 

Sleeper pick: Jordan Spieth, +6,600. He has been consistently volatile this year but really feels like he’s playing his best golf of the past eight years. I think he channels the good vibes of 2017 and contends. Will see if he can win on Sunday.

Josh Sens

To-win: Rory McIlroy, +850. The best player in the world not named Scottie Scheffler is in full free-roll mode, energy focused squarely on the majors, playing without the weight of unmet expectations. It’s kind of shocking that he’s won this event only once. Right in his wheelhouse. Here comes number two.

Sleeper pick: Tom Kim, +4,500. We saw it at Shinnecock. We saw it again last week at the Scottish Open. Kim is in fine form and seems largely unfazed by the big stage. Come to think of it, he seems enlivened by it. 

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