World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba: In-depth PGA Tour preview with strokes gained data, players to watch and more

After a number of weeks without much star power, some of the biggest names in the game are making the trip to Mexico for this week’s World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba.

Last season, Viktor Hovland broke the Puerto Rico Open curse (which famously plagued Tony Finau until his breakout at the Northern Trust a few months ago) with his one-shot win over Aaron Wise. Hovland hasn’t won since but enters the week as one of the betting favorites at +2000.

Justin Thomas is making his first start since a T-18 at the CJ Cup and will look to build off his solid performance at Mayakoba last year when he finished T-12. Brooks Koepka is also teeing it up this week looking to turn around a tough start to the new season where he hasn’t finished inside the top 30 in his first two starts.

Golf course

El Camaleón Golf Course
Par 71
7,017 yards
Greg Norman
Paspalum SeaIsle greens

Weather

Key stats

Driving accuracy: On short golf courses, living in the fairway is critical. The putting surfaces around this track are some of the easiest on the PGA Tour, so finding the short grass will maximize opportunities for these guys to fire at pins.

Strokes Gained: Approach: Speaking of firing at pins, the field will need to do that all week long if they want to get to 20 under and contend. Again, these greens are relatively easy when it comes to putting, so stuffing approach shots will be a true separator at Mayakoba.

Data Golf information

Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. Sedgefield Country Club, 2. TPC Sawgrass, 3. TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm

Trending (among the players in the field): 1. Justin Thomas (last three starts: T-22, 4, T-18), 2. Aaron Wise (T-26, T-8, T-5), 3. Harold Varner III (T-16, T-11, T-32)

Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Abraham Ancer (6.3 percent), 2. Viktor Hovland (4.7 percent), 3. Russell Henley (3.3 percent)

Betting odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list.

Betting card for the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba

Aaron Wise – Top 20 (+190)

I made this pick while writing this preview. Sometimes you just have to go with your gut. Who knew this man was trending like this? Last three starts: T-26, T-8, T-5.

On top of his recent form, he was the solo runner-up to Hovland here last season. Also finished T-10 back in 2018.

This season, Wise is hitting nearly 65.5 percent of fairways, 77.78 percent of greens (seventh on Tour), and is averaging five and a half circles on the card per round (ninth on Tour).

Scottie Scheffler – Top 20 (+230)

Scottie Scheffler lines up his putt on the 11th hole during round one of the Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin on October 07, 2021, in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images)

The value here was too good to pass up. Also, I don’t want to be off the bandwagon when Scheffler finally gets it done for the first time on Tour.

The Texan ranks sixth this season in birdies per round (5.83) but is 175th in scoring average (72.12). In laymen’s turns, he’s making too many mistakes. If he can keep the squares off the scorecard, he’ll be right there come Sunday afternoon. He’s also hitting 75 percent of greens and if that trend continues, he’ll have a ton of looks to go deep.

He’s played in this event just once but captured a T-18 in 2019.

Shane Lowry – Top 20 (+200)

Shane Lowry on the first tee box during a practice round for the Masters at Augusta National Golf Club. Photo by Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

The Irishman is due. He’s been hanging around leaderboards for the better part of a year, including a run at the end of last season with four top 25s in his last five starts.

He struggled for the first few days of the CJ Cup but fired 69, 64 over the weekend. A few weeks before Vegas, Lowry played in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the European Tour and tied for fourth.

Over his last 24 rounds on the PGA Tour on courses less than 7,200 yards, Lowry ranks eighth in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Billy Horschel – Top 20 (+175)

Billy Horschel of the United States of America celebrates winning the BMW PGA Championship with champagne on September 12, 2021, in Virginia Water, England. (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)

Horschel hasn’t played on the PGA Tour since the Tour Championship at East Lake back in September but has played twice on the Euro Tour. He won the BMW PGA Championship a week after Atlanta and tied for 36th at the Alfred Dunhill Links.

He’s played in this event the last three seasons, improving his finish each time: T-21 (2018), T-8 (2019), T-5 (2020).

Best cumulative score to par at Mayakoba last 3 years:

Horschel, -43
Ancer, -41
Garnett, -40
Long, -36
Ortiz, -36
Dahmen, -36
Grillo, -36

— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) November 1, 2021

Abraham Ancer – Top 10 (+210)

Abraham Ancer plays his shot from the second tee during the final round of the RBC Heritage golf tournament at Harbour Town Golf Links. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Hideki Matsuyama a few weeks ago in Japan, now Ancer in Mexico, it may be time for another hometown winner. Ancer has performed well at this golf course over the years with a T-12 in 2020, T-8 in 2019, and T-21 in 2018.

Over Ancer’s last 24 rounds on the PGA Tour at venues measuring under 7,200 yards, he ranks inside the top 35 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Ball-Striking, Tee to Green, and Total.