Who will win The Open? We rank the contenders at Royal St. George’s

The end of the men’s major season is nearly upon us. Just 18 holes remain, pending a playoff at the Open Championship. The leaderboard flipped and flopped its way through Saturday afternoon and leaves us with what seems to be a two- or three-horse race. Word to the wise: don’t fall into that trap!

This is more than just a two-horse race. It’s more than a three-horse race. At least six or seven people have a chance to hoist the Claret Jug Sunday afternoon. With the way Royal St. George’s is playing, there clearly are bogeys to be made, just as there are birdie stretches looming throughout the course. If you thought Saturday was good, with Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa and Louis Oosthuizen jockeying for position, just wait until Sunday. 

Here’s how the contenders (subjectively) rank in terms of most likely to get it done come Sunday. 

1. Collin Morikawa (11 under, one back)

No one at the top of the leaderboard has won quite as much as Morikawa in the last two years, and that must stand for something. The guy has very little scar tissue, if any, in his young, successful career. So when things get tight Sunday, he’ll have only good vibes to think about. Also, he’s the best irons player in the world. And it’s not close. 

2. Louis Oosthuizen (12 under, one clear)

One thing is clear about Oosthuizen: he won’t go away. Not this year, at least. He’s in contention to win a major for the third straight month, but something has kept him from doing it each time. He’ll have the lead when he tees off, which is nice. But what weird bounce will keep him from triumphing this week? He’s putting as well as anyone in the world, so perhaps there will be none, and we’ll crown him Champion Golfer of the Year once again. 

3. Jordan Spieth (nine under, three back)

Prior to his bogey-bogey finish Saturday, no player has seemed more dangerous at Royal St. George’s than Spieth. He’s made 16 birdies and will surely add another four or five Sunday. But keeping the bogeys to a minimum will be absolutely necessary. He can blame himself for that with his rough finish today. Without that, he might rank No. 1 here. 

4. Jon Rahm (seven under, five back)

If it feels like we’ve seen this story play out before, that’s because we just did a month ago in San Diego. Rahm came from three shots down Sunday at Torrey Pines. This deficit might be too much, though. If a bogey-free 64 is out there for the taking, Rahm would be among the favorites to make it happen. 

5. Scottie Scheffler (eight under, four back)

We must pay some respect to Scheffler’s ability to fill it up as a birdie machine. He’s wickedly talented and ranked No. 19 in the world. He’s got a great case to make the United States Ryder Cup team later this year, but he’s never won a PGA Tour event. Ever. Calling for Scheffler to get it done at a major might be too much. But then again, would we be that surprised? 

6. Cameron Smith (six under, six back)

The young Aussie has shown an ability to play great, grinding golf on tough courses. He’s amassed four career top 10s in majors. He could maybe shoot 64? Maybe? You’d bet on him before betting on others around him on the leaderboard. He’s one of the best 25 golfers in the world. But he’ll have to play all gas, no brakes from the jump Sunday. 

7. Corey Conners (eight under, four back)

I think we are comfortable declaring Conners the official best player from Canada. He continually peeks his head up near the lead at major championships. No one is really expecting him to go out and run down Morikawa or Oosty, but we must pay some respect to his chances. You never know when someone is going to blackout and post a score no one behind them can beat. 

8. Dylan Frittelli (seven under, five back)

Frittelli might seem like he’s too far back, but he hits it a long way. If he drives it well, who knows what he’s capable of shooting. The aforementioned blackout theory applies to him as well. You just never know.

9. Daniel Berger and Webb Simpson (five under, seven back)

And here we arrive at the boys who need to break records. Berger and Simpson would both probably have to shot 63 or maybe even 62 to get it done, and that might not even be possible. But both players have shown how low they can take it. They both have the ability to come back on a Sunday. They’ve both made things interesting from multiple groups ahead in majors. We’re talking very slim chances, but chances nonetheless. 

Sean Zak

Golf.com Editor

A senior editor for GOLF.com, Zak joined the GOLF staff three weeks after college graduation. He is the utility infielder of the brand, spanning digital, print and video. His main duty is as a host for various GOLF.com video properties and its award-winning podcasts. When the Masters comes around, be sure to tune in to hear him and fellow staffers recount the most memorable tournaments in Augusta National history on A Pod Unlike Any Other.