The final leg of the PGA Tour’s Florida Swing has arrived as a loaded field is outside Tampa for the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course.
Two-time Valspar winner Sam Burns is joined in the field by defending champion Taylor Moore, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Cameron Young, Brian Harman and Min Woo Lee.
Burns will be a popular pick this week, however, he’s coming off a disappointing performance in Ponte Vedra Beach, where he tied for 45th at the Players Championship. As for Moore, he’s yet to finish inside the top 20 on Tour this season. On the other hand, he’s yet to miss a cut (seven starts in 2024).
For a player like Justin Thomas, who missed the cut at the Players, the Valspar should serve as a rebound spot.
Golf course
Copperhead Course | Par 71 | 7,340 yards
Course history
Betting odds
| Player | Odds | Player | Odds |
| Xander Schauffele | (+700) | Sepp Straka | (+3500) |
| Sam Burns | (+1200) | Keith Mitchell | (+4000) |
| Justin Thomas | (+1400) | Keegan Bradley | (+3500) |
| Jordan Spieth | (+1600) | Doug Ghim | (+4000) |
| Tony Finau | (+2500) | Adam Hadwin | (+3500) |
| Cameron Young | (+2200) | Eric Cole | (+4500) |
| Brian Harman | (+2000) | Christiaan Bezuidenhout | (+4500) |
| Sungjae Im | (+2500) | Maverick McNealy | (+5500) |
| Min Woo Lee | (+3000) | Beau Hossler | (+5000) |
| Nick Taylor | (+3500) | Aaron Rai | (+4500) |
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Picks to win
Brian Harman walks to the 2nd green during the third round of THE PLAYERS Championship golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports
Justin Thomas plays his shot from the 16th tee during the first round of the 2024 Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. (Photo: Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union)
I’d suspect many people are not on board with going with JT this week after he missed the cut at the Players. But I like this as a bounce-back spot for Thomas.
In six starts at Copperhead, Thomas has finished T-10 (2015), T-18 (2016), MC (2017), T-13 (2021), T-3 (2022) and T-10 (2023).
Plus, outside of two missed cuts at the Genesis and Players this year, Thomas has four T-12 or better finishes.
Doug Ghim of the United States plays a shot on the 14th hole during the third round of THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass on March 16, 2024 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Since missing back-to-back cuts at the Sony Open and American Express to open the year, Ghim has been golfing his ball. His last five starts: T-13 (Farmers Insurance Open), T-12 (WM Phoenix Open), T-8 (Mexico Open), T-16 (Cognizant Classic) and T-16 (Players).
Ghim missed the weekend at his Valspar debut in 2021 but tied for 27th in 2023.
The Copperhead Course demands accuracy and consistency, two things Ghim has in his game (13th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 12th in driving accuracy).
Maverick Mcnealy walks from the 2nd green during the third round of THE PLAYERS Championship golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports
I’ve been waiting on a McNealy win for what seems like decades, but this could be the week that wait comes to an end.
He played great at TPC Sawgrass, eventually tying for ninth. Add a T-13 performance at the Mexico Open and a tie for sixth at the WM Phoenix Open and McNealy is putting together a solid 2024 campaign.
In his lone start at the Valspar, McNealy tied for 36th in 2023.
Sam Ryder hits his tee shot on the second hole during the third round of the 3M Open golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
After consecutive missed cuts at the WM Phoenix Open and Genesis, Ryder has finished T-21 at the Cognizant Classic and T-16 at the Players. Maybe a little Florida sunshine was all he needed.
Ryder didn’t play a weekend at Copperhead from 2019-2022, but he tied for 19th last season.
Like Ghim, Ryder is consistent. He’s 11th on Tour in driving accuracy and inside the top 40 in SG: Approach.
If he can get the putter to heat up, he’ll have a chance Sunday.
Joel Dahmen plays from the 1st tee during the third round of THE PLAYERS Championship golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports
Now this would be one hell of a story.
Dahmen, who has gone through a mental battle over the last year-plus which was documented on Netflix’s “Full Swing,” has started to play some golf. He missed the cut at the Cognizant Classic, but tied for 49th at the Puerto Rico Open a week later. Then, at the Players, Dahmen tied for 11th after rounds of 67-67-68 to finish his week.
He’s made the weekend in all three of his appearances at the Valspar.
If he goes on to win, it’d be one of the most celebrated victories of the last decade.
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