In-depth preview of this week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions with key stats, strokes gained data, and best bets

The PGA Tour is back. Thank goodness.

The boys are in Hawaii to kick off the 2022 calendar year in fashion. A total of 38 of the 39 winners from last season have made the trip with Rory McIlroy being the only one staying at home.

Phil Mickelson, winner of the PGA Championship (if you didn’t know), is playing in the T.O.C for the first time in 21 years.

Xander Schauffele, who didn’t capture a win last season, is in the field this week thanks to the gold medal hanging from his neck.

World No. 1 Jon Rahm is making his first start since the Fortinet Championship.

Course

Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
Par 73
7,596 yards

Weather

Key stats

Driving distance: The fairways around this property are gigantic, maybe even big enough that you could hit them. Because of this, target some bombers. The Plantation course is a long track and a par 73, need players who can take advantage of that.

Approach: This is an annual birdie fest. To make a lot of birdies, on a consistent basis, you need to hit the ball close to the hole.

Data Golf’s best player course fit: Bryson DeChambeau.

Data Golf information

Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. Augusta National, 2. Riviera, 3. Monterey Penisula Country Club

Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Jon Rahm (9.6 percent), 2. Justin Thomas (9.4 percent), 3. Bryson DeChambeau (9 percent)

Betting odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list.

Betting card for the  Sentry Tournament of Champions

Xander Schauffele – Top 5 (+220)

Hate to go chalk with my first pick, but Mr. Schauffele really does love it here. He ranks second to only Justin Thomas in total amount of birdies or better over the last three seasons at the Plantation course.

His last three results at the TOC: 1st (2019), T-2 (2020), T-5 (2021). Pretty good. It’s tough to know how these guys are playing since we haven’t seen most of them for over a month, but I’ll bank on the gold medalist’s game at this track.

His last win came at this event three years ago.

Jordan Spieth – Top 10 (+130)

Jordan Spieth tees off on the first during the second round of the CJ Cup golf tournament at The Summit Club. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

He hasn’t been here for a while with his last appearance coming in 2018, however, he’s another guy who loves this place. Spieth has never finished outside the top 10 at this event, with one of those weeks ending with a victory (2016).

He’s tied with Steve Stricker for the best course history index on Data Golf at the Plantation course.

Justin Thomas – Top 5 (+155)

Justin Thomas celebrates with the winner’s trophy after the final round of the Sentry Tournament Of Champions at the Kapalua Plantation Course on January 05, 2020 in Kapalua, Hawaii. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Again, this is chalk. But yet again, it’s tough to ignore how good Thomas is at this course. Last three appearances: 3, 1, 3. He also won this event back in 2017.

His game looked extremely good at the PNC Championship, with an apparent new long-drive swing in the arsenal. Let’s go JT.

Sungjae Im – Top 10 (+140)

Sungjae Im hits his tee shot on the eighth hole during the final round of the Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin on October 10, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images)

This man just makes birdies at an extremely high rate, and at this event, you have to love that. He’s also a tee-to-green machine, which according to Justin Ray, is extremely important around this place. Ten of the last 11 winners of this tournament finished inside the top three for the week in SG: Tee-to-green.

Last year, Im finished T-5 at 21 under.