How low will the PGA Championship winner go? Our writers weigh in

Sean Zak, senior writer (Sean_Zak): I’ve never seen such mixed predictions! Some players seem to think it’ll play rather straightforwardly. Others are acting like it’s the toughest course they’ve ever seen. The one thing the PGA has done well in recent years is produce a champion in the 5-under to 12-under range. That’s my favorite type of championship golf. Shoot a couple under par each day and you’re in winning shape. I’ll predict 10 under gets it done. Congrats to Dustin Johnson on his third major championship.

Jonathan Wall, managing editor, equipment (@jonathanrwall): Taking everything into account, I think 8 or 9 under wins, which goes against the birdie-fests we’ve seen at past PGA Championships. I actually don’t mind them cranking up the difficulty and making the bombers think before they pull the trigger. The rough is going to be a big issue this week. I’d normally take someone like Rahm or Scheffler, but I think Adam Scott has the perfect game to win at Oak Hill. He’s long enough to have an advantage off the tee, and his iron play is finally coming around. 

Zephyr Melton, assistant editor (@zephyrmelton): Over the past several years, it seems like Kerry Haigh has found his groove when it comes to course setup. It’s been difficult, but not U.S. Open-tough. If you play well, you can go low. If not, big numbers are out there. With that in mind, I think a nice 7 under week will do the trick. I’m gonna go out on a limb and predict Rickie Fowler as our winner. He’s been playing some really solid golf of late, and there may be some supernatural forces at play, too.

Josh Sens, senior writer: On the 10th anniversary of Dufnering, I think we can also look back to Dufner’s winning score 10 years ago of 10-under par at Oak Hill. Something in that neighborhood. Yes, the course has gotten longer, and the setup appears to be beefier. But the players keep getting longer and stronger. Plus, how many times have we headed into a big tournament hyperventilating about how brutal the course is, only to watch someone take it into double-digit red numbers.I’m looking for that to be the cleanly shaven Cam Young — the inverse of a hockey player, getting rid of the beard just in time for the big event.

Jessica Marksbury, senior editor: Thanks to the insider info I’ve been enjoying from this week’s Seen & Heard video dispatches, I’m going to take the over and choose 13 under as the winning score. Yesterday, Joel Dahmen noted that he was pleasantly surprised by how playable the course is. That’s really saying something, when the wind was gusting at 30+ mph! Thursday will be chilly, but the rest of the week looks downright pleasant in terms of temperature. And Brooks Koepka, tamer of many brawny layouts, remains my top pick.

Jack Hirsh, assistant editor (@JR_HIRSHey): From what I’ve seen with the rough, it’s not particularly long, but it’s very thick and grabby. Balls do not bounce far in it. The fairways here also aren’t very wide. With that said, as with many great Ross designs, if players miss below the hole, they’ll have a chance. For that reason, I’m not convinced this course is going to produce a single-digit under par winner. I’m going with 10 under. 

Nick Piastowski, senior editor (@nickpia): I like 10-under, or a little less. Everything I’ve seen and heard says this will be a test. The fairways are tight, the rough is thick, the slopes around the green are severe, the refurbished bunkers are deeeeep and the greens are slick. But these guys are just good. And I’m thinking the setup will be fair, which makes 10-under seem right.