Valspar Championship: Best Bets

The amount of pain I felt on Sunday evening, when Wyndham Clark’s putt on 18 to force a playoff at The Players Championship against Scottie Scheffler was halfway down and rimmed out is indiscernible. I think even my little baby girl started crying. I’m not convinced it was because I startled her, more so, that she felt the pain it caused me.

All the pain aside, you must admit, that was one of the better tournament finishes we’ve had in quite some time.

The organic drama the PGA Tour was looking for, well, that was it!

Now we pick up our chins, dust off our shoes, and get ready to bet on the last tournament on the Florida Swing.

The Valspar Championship is played just outside of Tampa, FL, in Palm Harbor at Innisbrook Resort on the Copperhead Course.

Having played this course. This course is HARD (10th most difficult on Tour). The fairways are tight and lined with trees. The rough is thick and with the extra rain this season, there’s a chance the superintendent keeps it long and we get major-like conditions if you miss the fairway.

It’s also important to note that the greens here are much smaller than the typical Florida resort course greens. For reference, Bay Hill’s average green size is 7,500 sq ft. and Copperhead’s is 5,822 sq ft.

With a lot of forced layups off the tee, approach play becomes ultra important this week.

In my 2022 Valspar NBC Sports article, I picked Sam Burns because it felt like a “Ball strikers Paradise.” Even last season’s winner Taylor Moore shared the same sentiment. He was asked what he thought about the course before and after he finished the tournament. Moore said, “I think this is a ball-striker’s kind of paradise, fairway and green it to death.”

Here’s a look at the metrics I saw as being the closest correlated to success.

Key Metrics Correlated to Success:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• SG: Off The Tee
• SG: Par 5
• SG: Putting
• P: 10-15ft
• Par 3: 200-225
• Scrambling
• P4: 450-500
• Proximity: 175-200

Bets to Win the Valspar Championship

Sam Burns +1200

I’ve been talking about betting on Sam Burns to win Valspar again this year since before the Florida Swing. I planted my flag on him after his top-10 finish at Pebble Beach. Not only does Burns love this course, hence the back-to-back wins in 2021 and 2022, but Burns has been playing some exceptional golf.

Even if you’re looking at his last two events, you can take some solace in the fact that his game is in a good spot. I mean, at the Arnold Palmer, Burns was somewhat in contention on Sunday before a wind-filled round that derailed his positioning.

Burns’ biggest weapon this week is his putter. While the greens were overseeded differently, Burns should still see a lot of success on the putting surface. He’s gaining about 2.3 strokes putting per event over his last five events. That’s with being a loser on the greens at the Players.

When Burns won here he gained 5.2 and 9.1 strokes putting. His price is short, but with his current form and the success he’s had here, you must imagine he will be in contention come Sunday.

Tony Finau +2800

I wanted to write this up should Tony Finau win this week so that I can shake my virtual booty all over Twitter/X with screenshots during my victory dance.

Honestly, vic lapping a +2800 isn’t all that warranted, but I do think I see a profound upward tick in Finau’s game that should make him more live than his price suggests.

Sure, when you turn on your television to watch the golf broadcast, you probably see Finau missing 3-5ft putts like crazy. It’s true, what’s spurned Finau the most over this rough stretch has been his poor putting.

Finau should suck again on the putting surface this week? Not so fast my friend. There might be a slight uptick in Finau’s putting confidence. He gained +0.3 strokes in Mexico and another 1.3 last week.

It might be a big reach for me to suggest that Finau will have a stellar week on the greens. However, all I’m asking for is a +1 or +1.5 this week. He’s the SG: App leader in the field this season. If he dominates on approach as he did at the Farmers and instead of losing –2.9 strokes putting, he gains 1.3, he might find himself with a new piece of hardware.

Other Bets to Win: Brian Harman +2250, Doug Ghim +7000 0.5un, Sam Ryder +10000 0.15un

Top Placement Bet for the Valspar Championship

Doug Ghim Top 20 +230

Let’s talk about a golfer who quietly has put together a solid run of great finishes recently. Doug Ghim has finished inside the top 20 in his five events and has been a gainer pretty much everywhere around the course.

Innisbrook should be a much better course fit for Ghim than the others. He’s a great ball striker who is really good with his long irons. His putting isn’t the best but it’s also not terrible. He can have a +1.4 tournament on the putting greens out here. He’s also very live if he just goes insane with his irons. I was a bit surprised at this price. I had to take it.

Other Prop Bets: Sam Ryder Top 20 +320