Masters expert picks to win, sleepers to watch at Augusta National

Call it a karma bet. 

In late February, during the final round of the Honda Classic, Shane Lowry was in need of a birdie on the 18th hole at PGA National, only to make a par — after having to play the final hole through a passing heavy rain storm. Afterward, after calling the misfortune “as bad a break as I’ve ever got,” Lowry was then reminded of an old saying by a reporter. 

“They say the breaks even out,” the reporter said. 

“Hopefully in about five or six weeks in Augusta,” Lowry said. 

Indeed. Stranger things have happened. And if you, the Masters bettor, believe, along with having some faith in good recent form and a good track record at Augusta National, the return is healthy. Lowry is a bit further down the board, at 50-1.  

Wondering who else to bet on for the Masters? We can help. Members of our staff have each made a to-win and sleeper bet using odds from BetMGM to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook.

On to our expert picks.

(Looking to play any of these bets yourself? We teamed with BetMGM and the online sports book is offering a Risk-Free Bet of up to $1,000.)

Expert picks 

Alan Bastable 

To-win: Viktor Hovland, +1,800. By his own admission, Hovland isn’t a great chipper, and the stats back that up (he’s DFL on Tour in SG: Around the Green). That would normally be a red flag heading into Augusta, but the guy hits so many greens in reg (71 percent, 12th best on Tour) that he’s not forced to scramble all that much. So, yeah, we still like him. How can’t we? In 2022, he has been more or less an automatic top 10, he loves the big moment, and though he has only two career starts at Augusta, on both occasions he proved the course suits him, finishing T32 as an amateur in 2019, and T21 a year ago. This year, I think he’ll look great in a green jacket.

Sleeper pick: Cameron Young, +10,000. What’s not to like about this guy? Bombs it, makes boatloads of birdies (4.68 birdie average is seventh best on Tour) and can putt. That’s usually an effective recipe at Augusta. Don’t let his MC at the Players fool you; he’s having a breakout year, which could really take off with a win.

Josh Berhow 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +1,600. A trendy pick, yes, but what’s not to like about Scheffler right now? Even without his recent success, he’s proven to be a contender in major championships. He was T19 and T18 in his two Masters starts, and in his past three majors, he’s finished no worse than T8. A somewhat obvious pick? Yes. But man, would I feel dumb if he won this thing and the only reason I didn’t pick him was because it was too obvious.

Sleeper pick: Cameron Champ, +15,000. Champ’s had a rough 2022 and hasn’t fired a competitive round in the 60s since early February, but he has a decent track record at Augusta (T26 and T19 the past two years). With these odds, it’s worth a flier to see if he can have a good week on a course he’s had decent success on.

James Colgan 

To-win: Patrick Cantlay, +1,800. This year feels ripe for the “long-overdue star finally captures first major” narrative, and what better player for that than Cantlay, whose public persona has come of age in the past few months?

Sleeper pick: Tony Finau, +6,600. At the time of this writing, Finau has the same odds to win as his 2019 final-round partner, Tiger Woods. Woods has played 16 events in the three years since; Finau has played 70. It’s never been a question of talent for Tony. Maybe he puts it all together this week.

Dylan Dethier   

To-win: Xander Schauffele, +2,200. I’ve been staring at these odds. Staring and staring. The players’ names themselves have stopped even making sense to me. I suddenly hate all the offerings. Everybody is too smart now. Cameron Smith seems like a great pick to play well — but he’s just 14-1?! Y’all are coalescing on a few logical names. My brain has turned to mush. I’m falling back on the guy who I basically pick every major, who has two top-3s in his past three starts here, who has been playing well but not well enough to get on your radar and has more than 2x the odds of Jon Rahm. Gimme Xander Schauffele and redemption at No. 16 on Sunday.

Sleeper pick: Luke List, +10,000. A few names jump out as we get further down the board. Zalatoris at 33-1. Sam Burns at 40-1. Corey Conners at 50-1. Tiger Woods at whatever number you can get him. Max Homa at 100-1, if he has a good chipping week. But once you start wading into the actual sleepers, one name seems undervalued: Luke List. He’s been held back by his putting this season, but List is hitting it so well — No. 1 on Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green — that if he can just get comfortable on Augusta’s slippery carpets for a few days, he’ll definitely be in the mix.

Emily Haas

To-win: Abraham Ancer, +6,600. This feels like really good value. As much as I want to pick Jordan Spieth at +1,400, Abe is ranked higher in the official world golf ranking and I can get him at odds that are more than four times longer. He hasn’t had any stellar finishes yet this season, but he has had some stellar starts, which makes me think he’s due.

Sleeper pick: Harry Higgs, +20,000. Think about how happy golf Twitter will be if we get to see the deep V-neck paired with the green jacket. Will Harry win? Probably not — but, boy what a fun Masters that would be. And with odds like these, why not?!

Luke Kerr-Dineen

To-win: Adam Scott, +5,000. Look, do I think Adam Scott is the most likely player in the field to win? No. Give Patrick Cantlay (+1,800) a look if you’re looking for a proper favorite. But it’s hard to find any player with better value than 2013 Masters champ Adam Scott. 18th on tour in driving distance and 13th in SG: Putting, with three top 10s in nine events so far this season.

Sleeper pick: Stewart Cink, +30,000. Hear me out: 48 year-old Stewart Cink has won each of the past two seasons — his most recent just down the road from Augusta National, at Harbour Town. He finished T-12 at the Masters last year, and that isn’t even his best finish in this event. He notched a 10th in 2006, and a solo third in 2008! 

Jessica Marksbury

To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,000. Rahm is one of those players who just “gets” Augusta National. He has all the tools and hasn’t finished outside the top nine in his past four appearances. This is the year.

Sleeper pick: Danny Willett, +15,000. A former champ with odds like these? Yes, please!

Nick Piastowski 

To-win: Justin Thomas, +1,400. He’s shown good form this season — six top 10s — and at Augusta National — five-straight top 25s. Thomas will win at least one green jacket before it’s all said and done. With all the talk around good buddy Tiger, a JT win makes a nice story, too.  

Sleeper pick: Seamus Power, +8,000. Something has clicked here. It’s asking A LOT for him to win in not just his first Masters appearance, but his first major. But you’ll struggle to find a more confident player right now. Also the headline possibilities are endless. 

Tim Reilly

To-win: Brooks Koepka, +1,800. Koepka is taking home his first green jacket. He looks to have his health issues behind him and has turned his game up a notch ahead of major season. Aside from last year’s missed cut, which can be chalked up to previous stated health issues, Koepka has been a consistent performer at Augusta. A non-limping Brooks will walk his way into Butler Cabin. 

Sleeper pick: Cameron Champ, +15,000. There’s no doubting his raw ability. Champ has struggled to consistently hone in his talent, but we’ve seen what he can do when he’s firing on all cylinders. With T26 and T19 finishes in the past two Masters, that’s a good sign that he feels comfortable playing at Augusta. And that’s enough for me to consider taking a flier on Champ at these long-shot odds. 

Darren Riehl

To-win: Cameron Smith, +1,400. Smith is comfortable at Augusta, with three top-10 finishes in just five starts. At Sawgrass, we saw how he does when he has a couple weeks off to fish and relax. Plus, we all want to see how the green jacket looks with the mullet.  

Sleeper pick: Tom Hoge, +15,000. Hoge is top five in the FedEx Cup points list and has been one of the most consistent players on Tour. Yes, he has 17 starts this year, but at +15,000, it is hard not to take Hoge.  

Claire Rogers 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +1,600. With three wins in his past five starts, the new world No. 1 has proven that he can hang with the best of ’em. He’s not intimidated by Tour veterans, major champions or the crowds on 16 at TPC Scottsdale. The late Dan Jenkins once said that the Masters doesn’t start until the second nine on Sunday, and Scheffler definitely knows how to close coming down the stretch. Scheffler’s on a hot streak, and I don’t see him cooling down any time soon.

Sleeper pick: Billy Horschel, +8,000. Let’s forget about the fact that Horschel not only slipped and fell at Augusta last year, but he had to apologize after repeatedly slamming his clubs into his bag after a bad shot. Let’s instead focus on the fact that he finished sixth in Phoenix, 16th at the Honda, and second at the Arnold Palmer. He had to withdraw from the Players due to illness, but those are some promising finishes, and I’m looking for him to go low at Augusta.

Josh Sens

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +1,600. Sometimes a bet seems so obvious and conventional that it makes you gun-shy and start doubting yourself. This is not one of those cases. 

Sleeper pick: Lee Westwood, +12,500. This year hasn’t been the same fountain-of-youth season as 2021 was for Westwood, but these are juicy odds for a guy who can still get it around.

Jonathan Wall 

To-win: Viktor Hovland, +1,800. Hovi is going to put at least one green jacket in the closet before it’s all said and done. He’s playing well enough this season to make a legitimate run.

Sleeper pick: Max Homa, +10,000. Selfishly want to see a Homa win for the legendary social media content that will undoubtedly ensue. 

Sean Zak 

To-win: Rory McIlroy +1,400. The basic Nikes. The basic hat. The no-frills everything. Tiger taking the headlines. Rory is going to slide under the radar and finally do it. 

Sleeper pick: Tom Hoge +15,000. Hoge will hang around because of his iron play. A basic approach might not win you the Masters, but hitting into the fat part of greens makes life easy enough to hang around. 

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Nick Piastowski

Golf.com Editor

Nick Piastowski is a Senior Editor at Golf.com and Golf Magazine. In his role, he is responsible for editing, writing and developing stories across the golf space. And when he’s not writing about ways to hit the golf ball farther and straighter, the Milwaukee native is probably playing the game, hitting the ball left, right and short, and drinking a cold beer to wash away his score. You can reach out to him about any of these topics — his stories, his game or his beers — at nick.piastowski@golf.com.