2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play odds, best bets and PGA Tour picks

Can you smell that? How ’bout feel it? Yes, the first men’s major championship of the year is within shouting distance, and it’s going to be hard to wait another two weeks for the Masters.

But before the players take that special drive down Magnolia Lane, it’s time to head to Austin, Texas, for the WGC-Dell Match Play.

Several of the game’s biggest names, including Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns, and recent Players champion Cameron Smith, are not in the field this week. However, after a layoff stemming back to the Farmers Insurance Open, Bryson DeChambeau is one of the 64 names in this week’s March Madness type bracket.

Golf course: Yardage book for Austin Country Club

Key statistics

Strokes Gained: Approach: Pete Dye design? It’s probably good to start with iron play.

Putting: Bermuda: There’s a reason why Kevin Kisner seems to reach the final four of this event every year. When you can consistently make putts that your opponent thinks you’re gonna miss, it’s demoralizing.

Data Golf Information

Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. Harbour Town Golf Links (home of the RBC Heritage), 2. Colonial Country Club (home of the Charles Schwab), 3. Sea Island GC (Plantation)

Trending: 1. Justin Thomas (last three starts: 6, T-33, T-3), 2. Scottie Scheffler (T-7, 1, T-55), 3. Matt Fitzpatrick (T-9, MC, T-5)

Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Jon Rahm (5.1 percent), 2. Justin Thomas (4.8 percent), 3. Viktor Hovland (3.5 percent)

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Betting odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list.

Betting card for the 2022 WGC Dell Match Play

Last week’s results: Valspar Championship

Viktor Hovland – Top 10: Miss
Louis Oosthuizen – Top 20: Miss
Matthew Fitzpatrick – Top 20: Cash (+170)
Shane Lowry – Top 20: Cash (+130)
Jason Kokrak – Top 20: Miss
Russell Knox – Top 20: Miss
Kevin Kisner – Top 20: Miss

Down two units on positions plays, six units on outrights at Valspar.

Up 16.69 units on position plays, and up 31.5 units on outright plays in 2022.

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Alex Noren plays his shot from the first tee during the final round of The Honda Classic golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Since 2018, among the players in this field, Noren is second to only Bubba Watson in hole win percentage at the Match Play (31.1 percent). In his career at ACC, Noren has won or halved 81.4 percent of the holes he’s played, the highest rate among players in the field (minimum 60 holes played).

(Shoutout Justin Ray for the stats).

Since his T-6 finish in Scottsdale, the Swede has added two more T-12 finishes or better, including his latest start (Valspar, T-12).

The rest of Group 10: Louis Oosthuizen, Paul Casey, Corey Conners.

Max Homa of the United States plays his shot from the 16th tee during the second round of THE PLAYERS Championship on the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on March 12, 2022, in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

The Cal product has played in this event just once, failing to make it out of group play. Despite his history, Homa’s recent form could carry him to a Sweet 16 appearance.

Since missing the weekend at Torrey Pines, the three-time Tour winner has rattled off four-straight top 20 finishes.

Over the last 12 rounds, of the players in the field, Homa ranks fifth in SG: Ball-Striking, fourth in SG: Tee to Green, and sixth in SG: Approach.

The rest of Group 8: Dustin Johnson, Matthew Wolff, Mackenzie Hughes.

Russell Henley on the 1st hole Sunday at the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo: Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union)

Henley has an interesting history at this event.

Interesting note that I mentioned on @BettorGolfPod last year about Russell Henley at the Match Play:

4-6-1 lifetime record, but Henley has never lost a match before 18. Something is going to turn with him eventually at this event.

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) March 21, 2022

This season, Henley ranks first in SG: Approach and ninth in birdie average. His finishes in 2022: 2, T14, T-33, T-33, T-13, T-13. Let’s ride with the Bulldog.

The rest of Group 14: Joaquin Niemann, Kevin Na, Maverick McNealy.