2022 Players Championship odds, key statistics, best bets and PGA Tour picks

It’s time for the first major of the year — well, kinda.

The Players Championship annually boasts the strongest field we see all year long and the golf course is a monster. Pete Dye’s masterpiece in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, offers several scoring opportunities while forcing the players to acknowledge par is a good score more often than not.

Whether they heed the message is up to them.

World No. 1 Jon Rahm, fresh off a top-20 finish in his Arnold Palmer Invitational debut, is the betting favorite at +1200 followed closely by defending champion Justin Thomas at +1300.

Winner of two of his last three starts, Scottie Scheffler is +2000.

Golf course

TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) | Par 72 | 7,256 yards | Bermuda greens

Weather

Bad weather: It could get dicey at the Players, but there’s optimism to finish Sunday

Key statistics

Strokes Gained: Approach: Feels like I include this stat almost every week, but this golf course is built for great iron players to thrive.

Bogey avoidance: Keeping the big numbers off the scorecard this week is going to be vital. A few crooked digits around the Stadium Course could result in a Friday trunk slam.

Data Golf Information

Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. Sedgefield Country Club (home of the Wyndham Championship), 2. TPC Twin Cities (home of the 3M Open), 3. TPC Potomac

Trending: 1. Scottie Scheffler (last three starts: 1, T-7, 1), 2. Justin Thomas (T-20, T-8. 6), 3. Patrick Cantlay (T-4, 2, T-33)

Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Jon Rahm (6.3 percent), 2. Patrick Cantlay (4.3 percent), 3. Justin Thomas (4.1 percent)

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Betting odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list.

Betting card for the 2022 Players Championship

Last week’s results: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Will Zalatoris – Top 20: Miss (T-38)
Matthew Fitzpatrick – Top 20: Cash (+150)
Max Homa – Top 20: Cash (+190)
Rory McIlroy – Top 10: Miss (T-13)
Marc Leishman – Top Australian: Miss (Adam Scott, T-26)

Outrights: Rory McIlroy (T-13), Viktor Hovland (T-2), Will Zalatoris (T-38)

+.4 units on position plays, and -3 units on outrights at API.

+18.44 units on position plays in 2022. +11.5 units on outright plays in 2022.

Brooks Koepka – Top 20 (+190)

Brooks Koepka hits his tee shot on the 13th hole during the final round of the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale on February 13, 2022, in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)

Last season, during this exact week, one of the biggest stars in the game fell below +2000 for the Players. I couldn’t have jumped on it faster.

That was Justin Thomas.

Koepka could do the same this week. He’s coming off a top-20 performance at the Honda Classic where he battled a tough course in tough weather (cough, cough: what we’re gonna see this week).

He missed the Players last year due to injury, but has had some success here in the past with a T-11 in 2018 and T-16 in 2017 (should be noted, both of those finishes came when the tournament was held in May). He’s only played in one March version and tied for 56th.

Cameron Smith – Top 20 (+170)

Cameron Smith of Australia plays his shot from the 11th tee during the Pro-Am Tournament prior to the start of the Sony Open in Hawaii at Waialae Country Club on January 12, 2022, in Honolulu, Hawaii. (Photo by Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images)

The Aussie isn’t gonna shy away from the challenge this week. He embraces the wind, and doesn’t mind making par when it’s a good score.

Smith missed the cut in his first two appearances at the Players (both in May). In 2019, when the switch to March was made, Smith played the weekend and tied for 56th. Last year, he improved on that and eventually finished T-17.

Matthew Fitzpatrick – Top 20 (+185)

Matthew Fitzpatrick of England looks on over the fourth green during the first round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach Golf Links on February 03, 2022, in Pebble Beach, California. (Photo by Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images)

The Englishman is playing great golf to start 2022. In three starts this calendar year, Fitzpatrick has finished T-6 (Pebble), T-10 (Phoenix Open), and T-9 (Arnold Palmer Invitational).

After shooting 1 under over the weekend in difficult conditions at Bay Hill, I’m not too worried about his ability to plot his way around Sawgrass this week.

He finished outside the Top 40 in 2019 but signed for T-9 last season.

Daniel Berger – Top 20 (+150)

Daniel Berger plays his shot from the first tee during the third round of The Honda Classic golf tournament. (Photo: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports)

Sunday at the Honda Classic still looms in the minds of many golf fans, but Berger had a stranglehold on that tournament entering the final round. The injury that plagued him at the Farmers Insurance looked like a non-issue, and his ball-striking was fantastic.

Difficult conditions will challenge the Ryder Cupper again this week, but I think he’ll be up for the task. Berger finished T-9 at the Players last season.

Other names I’m considering for the card

Talor Gooch: Despite the tough front nine on Sunday at Bay Hill, he still tied for seventh in Orlando. He grabbed a top 5 at the Players last season.

Collin Morikawa: This man is such an obvious pick this week I almost didn’t want to include him. But, he’ll probably go on the card.

Rory McIlroy: I bet on him every week. He’ll be on the card.

*Full betting card will be on my Twitter sometime Wednesday, March 9th.