2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, key statistics, best bets and PGA Tour picks

To start, this is one of the best weeks on the PGA Tour. Bay Hill, a loaded field, and a week to honor one of the most influential figures in all of sports history — Mr. Arnold Palmer. The King paved the way for golf to become what it is today, and this week the best players in the world travel to his Orlando, Florida, gem for the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge.

Bryson DeChambeau, who was set to enter the week as the defending champion, withdrew from the field Monday citing an injury. World No. 1 Jon Rahm is making his first appearance at the API and enters as the betting favorite at +750.

Arnold Palmer: PGA Tour Live on ESPN+ | Thursday tee times | How to watch

Golf course

Bay Hill Club and Lodge
Par 72, 7,466 yards, Bermuda grass

Weather

Key statistics

Strokes Gained: Approach: The wind is projected to be in the mid-teens come the weekend making great iron play even more futile. We’ll be targeting lots of great ball-strikers this week.

Approach shots from 200-yards plus: Here’s the reasoning:

Bay Hill has yielded more approach shots from 200 yards away or further than any course on the PGA Tour since 2016.

Bryson DeChambeau led the PGA Tour in average proximity from 200+ yards away last season. He of course won this tournament in 2021.

— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) February 28, 2022

Data Golf Information

Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. PGA West (Nicklaus Course), 2. The Old White TPC, 3. Annandale GC

Trending: 1. Jon Rahm (T-3, T-10, T-21), 2. Scottie Scheffler (T-20, 1, T-7), 3. Hideki Matsuyama (T-30, T-8, T-39)

Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Jon Rahm (10.3 percent), 2. Rory McIlroy (4.9 percent), 3. Viktor Hovland (4.8 percent)

Latest Twilight 9 podcast episode

Listen and download the show for free here: Apple | Spotify | Google | Other links

Betting odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list.

Betting card for the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Last week’s results (Honda Classic)

Billy Horschel – Top 20: Cash (+125)
Keith Mitchell – Top 20: Cash (+170)
Alex Noren – Top 20: Cash (+170)

Outrights: Yet another runner-up finish for one of the picks.

Going very, very light for the card at the Honda Classic

The more I look at the board the more I hate it

.5 units everywhere

Horschel 20/1
Fleetwood 20/1
Lowry 30/1
Noren 40/1
Pereira 40/1
McCarthy 60/1#HondaClassic
Odds: @tipico

— Riley (@rileyhamel_) February 23, 2022

+4.65 units on position plays, and -3 units on outrights at Honda Classic.

+18.04 units on position plays in 2022. +14.5 units on outright plays in 2022.

Will Zalatoris – Top 20 (+135)

Will Zalatoris reacts after missing a putt on the first green during the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. (Photo: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports)

After nearly capturing his first PGA Tour title at Torrey Pines a little over a month ago, Zalatoris followed that up with another solid performance at the Genesis Invitational tying for 26th.

Zalatoris leads the Tour in SG: Approach and SG: Tee to Green this season while hitting 74.6 percent of greens (ninth on Tour). Length shouldn’t be a problem for the Wake Forest product this week as he ranks inside the Top 20 in that category.

Willy Z tied for 10th at Bay Hill last season.

Max Homa – Top 20 (+190)

Max Homa plays his shot on the first fairway during the third round of the Genesis Invitational. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Homa has finished T-14 (WMPO) and T-10 (Genesis) in his last two starts. He’s played in the Arnold Palmer twice, tying for 24th in 2020 and 10th in 2021.

A proven winner on the PGA Tour still getting these kinds of odds for a Top 20? Yeah, we’re gonna take that every time.

Rory McIlroy – Top 10 (+140)

Rory McIlroy holds the trophy after his two-shot victory during the final round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational Presented By MasterCard at Bay Hill Club and Lodge on March 18, 2018, in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

Is this course history is any good?: T-10 (2021), T-5 (2020), T-6 (2019), 1 (2018), T-4 (2017), T-27 (2016), and T-11 (2015). Think that’s OK.

McIlroy has just one start on the PGA Tour under his belt in 2022, a T-10 performance at Riviera. On top of form and course history, he was first in greens in regulation from 200+ at the Genesis.

Long iron play has never been the problem for the four-time major winner, we’ll see if his short irons are up to the task.

Other names I’m considering for the card

Matt Fitzpatrick: Last 3 APIs: T-10, T-9, 2. He withdrew from the Genesis due to a stomach bug, but it’s been long enough that I don’t think that will have a huge impact. Last 2 starts on Tour: T-10 (WMPO), T-6 (Pebble).

Viktor Hovland: Doesn’t have a great track record at the Arnold Palmer, as he lacks a Top 40 finish on the resume. He missed the cut at the WMPO but bounced back nicely with a T-4 at the Genesis.

Jason Day: The Aussie won this event in 2016 and has had three T-31 or better finishes since (T-31 last season). He had a chance to win at Torrey earlier this season and was playing nicely at Pebble before stumbling home on Sunday and signing for T-24.

*Full betting card will be on my Twitter sometime Wednesday, March 2nd.