2022 Genesis Invitational odds, key statistics, best bets and PGA Tour picks

We got one. We finally got one. After having Russell Henley at the Sony Open (lost in a playoff) and Will Zalatoris at the Farmers Insurance Open (lost in a playoff), we cashed an outright ticket with Scottie Scheffler (+3000) at the WM Phoenix Open. Now it’s time to grab another one at the Genesis Invitational.

This is one of the best weeks of the year. In my opinion, outside of Augusta National, Riviera is the best golf course the PGA Tour plays on an annual basis. It’s a true test of ball-striking and does a fantastic job of separating players who are on their game, and who are not.

The top 10 players in the world are here. Let’s have a week.

Golf course

Riviera Country Club
Par 71 – Genesis Scorecard
7,322 yards
Greens: Poa
Defending champion: Max Homa

Weather

Key statistics

SG: Ball-striking: This course is the ultimate test of golf. If the guys don’t have every aspect of their game in top-notch form, they won’t be able to contend. Riviera is a ball-strikers paradise.

Par 4s Gained (450-500): Six of the 11 par 4s at Riv play to yardage in this range. Performing well on these will be critical, and may even act as a separator on the leaderboard.

Data Golf Information

Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. Nine Bridges, 2. Ridgewood CC, 3. Plantation Course at Kapalua

Trending: 1. Patrick Cantlay (Last three starts: 9, T-4, 2), 2. Hideki Matsuyama (1, T-30, T-8), 3. Justin Thomas (T-5, T-20, T-8)

Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Jon Rahm (8.4 percent), 2. Patrick Cantlay (8 percent), 3. Justin Thomas (5.6 percent)

Latest Twilight 9 episode

This week on the show, Andy and I discuss Charley Hoffman’s Instagram post and how it completely backfired on him. We discuss Scheffler’s first PGA Tour win, and preview this week’s Genesis Invitational which includes our favorite picks of the week.

Apple | Spotify | Google | Other links

Betting odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list.

Betting card for the 2022 Genesis Invitational

Last week’s results (WM Phoenix Open)

Bubba Watson – Top 20: Cash (+175)
Xander Schauffele – Top 20: Cash (+115)
Scottie Scheffler – Top 20: Cash (+135)
Viktor Hovland – Top 10: Miss
Russell Henley – Top 20: Miss
Corey Conners – Top 20: Miss

Scottie Scheffler – Outright: Cash (+3000)
Viktor Hovland – Outright: Miss
Justin Thomas – Outright: Miss

+1.25 units on position plays (+125), and +28 units on outrights at WM Phoenix Open.

+8.79 units on position plays in 2022. +20.5 units on outright plays in 2022.

Rory McIlroy

Rory McIlroy plays his shot from the 18th tee during the first round of the Open Championship golf tournament. (Photo: Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports)

Surprise, surprise – Rory McIlroy is back playing on the PGA Tour and he’s on my card. Get used to it folks, he’ll be on my card somewhere pretty much every week.

McIlroy missed the cut here last season but recorded top five finishes in 2020 and 2019. His last two starts were on the DP World Tour where he played nicely: T-12 at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, and 3rd at the Dubai Desert Classic.

Adam Scott – Top 20 (+170)

Adam Scott poses with the winners trophy following his victory in the 2020 Genesis Invitational. (Photo: Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports)

Scott finished T-38 here last season, won in 2020, and finished inside the top 10 in 2019. So far in 2022, Scott has two top 10 finishes on the DP World Tour, and tied for 38th at the WM Phoenix Open last week. He’s always one of the best ball-strikers on the planet and feels comfortable around this track.

Will Zalatoris – Top 20 (+140)

Will Zalatoris plays his shot from the second tee during the final round of the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in San Diego. (Photo: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports)

His last PGA Tour start ended with a playoff loss to Luke List at the Farmers Insurance Open. He finished 15th here last season and is one of the best ball-strikers on Earth. Not much else to say, just feels like a place Zalatoris will eventually win at in his career.

Only cause for concern: He is coming off COVID-19, so hopefully that hasn’t affected his body too much.

Other players to consider

Bubba Watson: He’s a three-time winner of this event. He was the runner up to HV3 in Saudi, and cashed a top 20 last week in Scottsdale. He has missed the cut here each of the last two seasons, but it’s hard not to like his overall course history and recent form.

Viktor Hovland: Man, he killed me last week. Missed the cut at the WMPO. But, he finished in the top five here last season, is a ball-striking machine and has still won 3 times in his last 6 starts.

Cameron Smith: He has two top six finishes in the last four years at the Genesis. Smith hasn’t made a start on Tour since the Sony Open where he missed the cut, but he won the week before at the TOC. Data Golf actually has Smith with the 4th best percent chance to win this week.

Matt Fitzpatrick: He finished 30th at the Genesis in 2020 and 5th in 2021. In 2022 on Tour, Fitzpatrick has finished T-6 at Pebble and T-10 in Scottsdale. Another guy that seems to play better at tougher golf courses, an absolute grinder.

*Full betting card will be on my Twitter sometime Wednesday, February 16th.