Valspar Championship betting guide: 6 picks our gambling expert loves this week

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the 2026 Valspar Championship, which gets underway Thursday in Palm Harbor, Fla.

After of a run of four Signature Events in five weeks, the PGA Tour lands in Palm Harbor at the Innisbrook Resort for the Valspar Championship and the Florida Swing finale. The Copperhead Course plays host to a full field, loaded with a substantial amount of star power, and is one of the more challenging golf courses on the Tour calendar.

After completing what will have been a month-long run in the Sunshine State, after the Valspar, it is on to Texas for a pair of tournaments before we touchdown at mighty Augusta National Golf Club.

Larry Packard designed this unique par-71 layout that opened in 1974 and features four par 5s, five par 3s, and nine par 4s. The course has been a Tour stop since 2005 and is wall-to-wall Bermudagrass with a Poa Trivialis overseed on the greens. The fairways are tree-lined, narrow, and in total, the golf course stretches to well over 7,300 yards. It really does not look like a traditional Florida golf course with as wooded as it is, and also with close to 100 feet in elevation change.

Six holes feature water in play. Many holes dogleg in both directions. The majority of approach shots come from 175 yards or more. It is a very challenging course, as evidenced by the winning score proposition bet this week at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook being Under/Over 271.5, meaning 12.5 under par.

While we kicked off the Florida Swing with “The Bear Trap,” at PGA National, we close it out with “The Snake Pit.” Holes 16-18 are three of the most difficult tests on the Copperhead Course. 

I prioritized Strokes Gained: Approach this week along with Scrambling, and work on both the par 5s and par 3s. With this being one of the tougher events on the circuit at which to gain strokes off the tee, I also looked at Good Drives Gained and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.

I believe the courses showing similarities and correlation this week provide a strong amount of connective tissue — and I looked at quite a few. Sea Island, home to the RSM Classic, Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship), TPC Sawgrass (Players Championship), TPC Deere Run (John Deere Classic), and Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab Classic) were the regularly scheduled courses I used. I also looked at Royal Troon (2024 Open Championship), the Concession (2021 Workday Championship), and St. George’s Golf & Country Club (2022 Canadian Open).

Matt Fitzpatrick (14-1)

It was European Ryder Cuppers Fitzpatrick and Ludvig Aberg who could not hold on to the lead last week at TPC Sawgrass, but I am going to bank on the Englishman bouncing back this week in Palm Harbor. He ranks 22nd on Tour in SG: Off the Tee, seventh in Driving Accuracy, 15th in SG: Approach, and is 66th in Scrambling. Fitzpatrick finished 10th at St. George’s in 2022, 11th at the Concession in 2021, and was eighth last year at the Wyndham Championship. He was fifth here at the Valspar in 2022.

Brooks Koepka (25-1)

I believe the time has come to give the five-time major champion a shot in his second PGA tour of duty. He was 13th last week at TPC Sawgrass, where he ranked fourth in that field for SG: Approach. Koepka is a Florida resident, went to Florida State, won in Florida at Doral in 2023 with LIV and in 2021, he was runner-up at the Concession. The last time he was here at Innisbrook, he finished 12th in 2022. If the putting wakes up for Koepka, he will be in contention this week.

Corey Conners (30-1)

Speaking of putting: goodness, how many wins would Conners have if he was a better putter? As usual, the ball striking was excellent last week at the Players Championship where, like Koepka, Conners also finished 13th. He ranked 18th in that field for SG: Off the Tee, sixth on approach and was 10th in Driving Accuracy. Conners finished sixth at St. George’s in Canada in 2022 and was eighth here at the Valspar last season. Again, if Conners can get hot with the putter for a few days this week, he may find his third career PGA Tour victory. 

Ryo Hisatsune (33-1)

This is becoming a trend. Another questionable putter who finished 13th last week at TPC Sawgrass. Sure, this is new territory as far as price for Hisatsune, but I feel it is justified for how his game has progressed in recent years and on Tour this season. Already this year, he has finished runner-up at Torrey Pines and was eighth at Pebble Beach. Hisatsune ranks 15th on Tour for SG: Off the Tee, is 22nd on approach, 25th in Driving Accuracy, and is 14th in Par 3 Scoring. Once again, let’s root for a good week with the putter.

Austin Smotherman (50-1)

Smotherman was runner-up four weeks ago at the Cognizant Classic and you guessed it, 13th last week at TPC Sawgrass, where he ranked No. 1 in that field for SG: Off the Tee. He is also No. 1 on Tour for SG: Approach. He ranks 20th in Driving Accuracy and is 49th in Scrambling. Smotherman ranks 22nd for Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards, and is sixth in Par 3 Scoring. 

Billy Horschel (125-1)

It has taken a minute for the form to come back around for Horschel, who missed most of last season with injury. But three weeks ago, finishing 13th at Bay Hill was a great sign. He went to University of Florida and is at his best on Bermudagrass. Horschel finished fourth here at the Valspar last season before being sidelined with hip surgery in May. He has multiple top-10 finishes at both the Wyndham Championship and the RSM Classic and was runner-up at both the Concession in 2021 and the Open Championship at Royal Troon in 2024.