Bethpage Black puts added wrinkle in Ryder Cup pairings dilemma

The wait is almost over.

As it always does, the final lead-up to the Ryder Cup has slowly crept along. With rain pelting Bethpage Black on Thursday, the wait feels even longer as we approach Friday’s opening day of the biennial event.

This Ryder Cup is big. The hype jumped the rails long ago. Everyone is ready for the festivities to kick off. But with under 24 hours to go until the balls are finally in the air, one important question remains: How will European captain Luke Donald attack the foursomes session?

Donald promised that he and Europe’s brain trust have a different plan than what they trotted out during their beatdown of Team USA in Rome two years ago. And yet, it might be difficult for Donald to go away from a foursomes plan that went 7-1 in Rome. The Americans have struggled in foursomes on the road (even though the road team usually does), but have been pretty dominant in the format in the last two home Ryder Cups, winning the sessions 11.5-4.5.

“I think players change,” Donald said at Wentworth. “It’s two years since Rome, and so excited about the continuity and having a team that is very similar to Rome. I think that’s a massive benefit for us. But players change. I’ve said this before: Look at someone like [Bob MacIntyre]. He’s become a much better player in the last two years. I didn’t see a similar option for foursomes but potential there is this time around because of the way he plays the game now.

“Again, you have to always consider sort of those things that not everyone is playing the same. People shift whether you are a good driver or approach player or a putter. Those things move around in your career, and so you adapt to that.”

That puts Donald in the pressure-packed position of making the right pairing decisions for Friday morning’s opening foursomes session. If Europe is to become the first team to win an away Ryder Cup since the 2012 “Miracle at Medinah,” a hot start will be vital.

A look at Europe’s practice pairings, along with how they trotted the team out at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, suggests Donald will at least run back some of the same pairings.

But Bethpage Black’s routing might ask him to pivot some.

Per Data Golf’s Ryder Cup insights analysis, “The People’s Country Club” will ask the player that tees off on the odd holes to hit driver on every par 4/5, which will be seven times. While the player that tees off on the even holes will also tee off on seven par 4/5s, they will likely take less than driver on Nos. 2 and 6. The length of the holes teed off on by the odds player means the even player’s approach distribution will be between 150-210 yards. The odds player’s approach shots will be more evenly distributed, per Data Golf.

So, what does this mean?

The odd player will hit more long irons and wedges while the evens player will have more short irons and around the green shots. That means Donald will want to match players together whose skill sets fit the demand of Bethpage Black.

Per Data Golf, two of the optimal pairings are retreads from Rome that we should expect to see Friday on Long Island. Those are Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood and Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton.

On Wednesday, Fleetwood was thrilled at the prospect of running back his undefeated partnership with McIlroy, something all the tea leaves are pointing toward.

“Whoever gets to play with Rory this week, like what a privilege,” Fleetwood said. “What an amazing thing to be able to do, to stand next to him on the golf course and play alongside him. He’s one of if not the greatest players of our generation. The energy that I think he has, that he brings to your team, that he brings to the Ryder Cup, I think is amazing. I think it’s great. If I’m one of them that gets a chance to play with him, I would love that opportunity. And whatever energy he decides to bring, I’ll be there to support him and be a good partner for him.”

In Rome, Donald rounded out his foursomes with Ludvig Aberg and Viktor Hovland and Sepp Straka and Shane Lowry.

This is where the shift comes in.

Per Data Golf, the optimal pairings for Europe will round out with Hovland and Matt Fitzpatrick while Aberg pairs with Robert MacIntyre. Of course, there is another factor to consider: the type of golf ball.

“I think certain players are very particular about what ball they play,” Donald said. “Some people are good at adjusting. But you can get to a stage where you have a great personality match, you have a great statistical match, they fit the golf course and the odds and evens, and then suddenly the golf ball doesn’t work. So it’s certainly one of the factors we have to look at.”

Both Aberg and Fitzpatrick play a Titleist ProV1x while Hovland and MacIntyre play a ProV1. That could lead Donald and analytics guru Edoardo Molinari to tinker with the “optimal” pairings a bit.

That would leave Justin Rose, Rasmus Hojgaard, Straka and Lowry on the bench for the opening session. While Rose didn’t play in foursomes in Rome, I think that will be different in what could be the 45-year-old’s Ryder Cup swan song. Rose spent Wednesday in a practice group with Aberg and the two play the same ball. If Donald does plan to break up the Hovland-Aberg pairing that was dominant in Rome, pairing Rose with the Swede and MacIntyre with Hovland feels like a likely path. Add in Lowry and Straka’s down tick in recent form and Hojgaard’s volatlity, which is best suited for fourballs, and you arrive at the most likely outcome: McIlroy-Fleetwood, Rahm-Hatton, Aberg-Rose and Hovland with one of either MacIntyre or Fitzpatrick.

Lowry has been playing alongside his good friend McIlroy in the practice groups and in Wentworth. The two have successfully partnered together at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, but that feels like a fall-back plan should Donald need to break up the McIlroy-Fleetwood duo.

As for the Americans, it seems like captain Keegan Bradley is intent on running back the Xander Schauffele-Patrick Cantlay pairing. Scottie Scheffler and Russell Henley are likely to be paired together. The other two pairings remain up in the air, with Bryson DeChambeau potentially being paired with either Cameron Young (they play the same prototype Titleist ball), Ben Griffin or Justin Thomas, based on the practice groupings this week. Data Golf’s “optimal” pairings for Team USA has DeChambeau with Henley and Scheffler with J.J. Spaun. It also breaks up the Cantlay-Schauffele pairing but is quick to note the difference between pairings’ rating is very small.

The pairings for Friday’s morning session will be announced at 4 p.m. ET Thursday, and then the balls will finally be in the air.