5 picks I love at the Dell Match Play, according to a professional gambler

March Madness is approaching a fever pitch, and not just on the hoop court. With the WGC-Dell Match Play on tap this week, golf fans are going deep on bracketology, too.

Sixty-four players, selected by way of the Official World Golf Rankings, will be going at it at Austin Country Club, in a format that splits them into 16 groups of four. After three days of round-robin competition, the winner of each group will move on to the single-elimination Round of 16, culminating with the finals on Sunday.

Billy Horshel is the defending champion. Jon Rahm is the number-one seed. And Bryson DeChambeau is back in action after missing several weeks due to injury.

So many ways to wager!

GOLF.com expert prognosticator Erick Lindgren is here to help us sort through the madness. As usual, we’re giving him a $1,000 budget (in play money), and he’s supplying us with his 5 top picks for the event, which kicks off Wednesday in the Texas capital.

(Looking to play any of these bets yourself? We teamed with BetMGM and the online sports book is offering a Risk-Free Bet of up to $1,000.)

Xander Schauffele to win the tournament, +2,200 (wager: $200)

The toughest part of this event is getting through group play, and Schauffele, Lindgren says, has the easiest group.

Scottie Scheffler to win the tournament, +2,000 (wager $100)

Last year’s runner-up has been on fire, with two wins already in the bank this year. 

Matt Wolff Group 8 winner, +450 (wager: $200)

Wolff is hardly immune to blowups, but he also makes birdies in bunches. In short, match play suits him. “He can take a snowman on one hole and step up to the next with a clean slate,” Lindgren says. “I love his upside here.”

Bubba Watson, group 15 winner, +333 (wager: $200)

Aside from Watson’s solid history here, Lindgren likes the fact that the big hitter is up against a trio of relatively short knockers in Abe Ancer, Brian Harman and Webb Simpson. Money on the bomber.

Tom Hoge, group 12 winner, +240 (wager: $300)

A sleeper talent, Hoge has had a breakout season. To get through this group, he will have to dispatch with Thomas Pieters, Min Woo Lee and defending champ Billy Horschel, who has flashed good form of late. But Lindgren says that Hoge has had the hottest hand of all.

Golf.com

A golf, food and travel writer, Josh Sens has been a GOLF Magazine contributor since 2004 and now contributes across all of GOLF’s platforms. His work has been anthologized in The Best American Sportswriting. He is also the co-author, with Sammy Hagar, of Are We Having Any Fun Yet: the Cooking and Partying Handbook.