Jon Rahm last month in Hong Kong.
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Jon Rahm said he was going to be nervous. Masters week was coming, and he’s the defending Masters champion.
And defending Masters champions, on the Tuesday night of Masters weeks, have to stand before previous defending Masters champions and give a speech that they hope is delivered profoundly — and does not sound goofy.
Three-footers are less daunting.
“Definitely one of the highlights of the week, but for some reason, definitely something I’m nervous about,” Rahm said last week of the talk that’ll come during his Champions Dinner.
“I have no idea why. But it does seem a little daunting having to stand up in front of that group and give a speech even though I know every single one of them has been in my position, some of them more than once. I don’t know, just seems — you’re going to be in that room with the legends of the game, still active and non-active, and that’s something really cool to be able to say and be able to share.”
Then are his duties starting Thursday, when the main event begins. And his confidence level in a title defense.
And the thought of whether you can back him with your hard-earned dollars.
Rahm said he’s good, thank you very much.
Last week, ahead of a tournament for LIV Golf, where he now plays, Rahm said he’d already returned to Augusta, so those nerves have at least simmered. He also believed playing the week before the Masters was beneficial, though more mentally than physically, with the thought being he’d be blinded from looking ahead.
Though winless this year, Rahm said he was confident, too.
“This year, I feel like I have been playing really good golf but not over that hump of winning yet,” Rahm said. “I’m confident now, and I’m equally confident on my game pretty much any given day of the year. I think that’s how any competitor should be. But this is that difference of how I’ve been playing the last few months.
“I’m comfortable.”
Are you, though? You’ve clicked on the right story.
Below, members of our staff have each made a to-win selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish.
On to our analysis.
2024 Masters expert picks to win, sleepers to watch
Ryan Barath
To-win: Brooks Koepka, +2,000. If history has shown us anything, it’s that Brooks Koepka knows how to show up to majors and win. He’s plenty long, strikes his irons well and has gotten very close at Augusta before. A sixth major would put him in the same category as Mickelson, Faldo and Trevino. [Whispers] But with all that said, I really hope Rory wins it.
Sleeper pick: Grayson Murray, +40,000. Grayson has won this year, and drives it well. Looking at his most recent results, he closed out the Players with a Sunday 64, and considering his odds, I think this is a great little pick.
Josh Berhow
To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +400. How do you bet against the guy? I mean, you can, but I won’t. Only bummer is it’s tough to get excited over a +400 payday. The point is simple: he’ll be ridiculously difficult to beat with how well he’s playing right now. (That said, if I were to bet against him, I like Koepka and Niemann.)
Sleeper pick: Rickie Fowler, +8,000. He hasn’t played great this year, and you might be surprised to learn this is his first Masters in four years, but he’s always played well at Augusta (five top-12 finishes) and maybe, just maybe, someday he’s going to win the big one. Logic says it might be on a course he’s got more familiarity with than about three-fourths of the field. (Sleeper pick runner-up: Russell Henley.)
Adam Christensen
To-win: Brooks Koepka, +2,000. Rory and Xander ahead of him, at +1,800? Speith with him at +2,000? How are we still disrespecting Koepka? In an era where nothing matters more than the four majors, I’ll take the guy who has shown he can not only handle the extra pressure, but thrive under it. After last year’s loss, I think this is the major trophy he wants the most. The one that consumes his competitive drive. His elite ball compression and spin control allow him to hit those high, soft-landing shots that play so well around Augusta. Do yourself a favor — take Brooks, and there’s a strong chance you’ll have a ticket in the mix come Sunday.
Sleeper pick: Byeong Hun An, +15,000. Not only has he been playing some great golf this season, but his game is a great fit for Augusta. Absolutely bombs the ball off the tee and has the short game to work with the slopes around Augusta. If he has an above-average putting week, he will have a chance. Si Woo Kim (+10,000) is another intriguing option. He’s played well to start the year, posting elite approach and around the green numbers. He could improve his chances by snapping the putter and moving to the 3-wood earlier in the week this time.
James Colgan
To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +400. B-b–b-but James … Scottie’s odds are TOO good to pick! It’s not FUN!!! Yeah, well, we’d better find a way to make it fun, because watching him lap the field in Augusta is going to usher in a new era in pro golf — and mark the return of a dominant World No. 1. Scottie is the small money because he’s the smart money. If he can keep his putts within gimme range, it won’t be close.
Sleeper pick: Nicolai Hojgaard, +15,000. A rising Ryder Cupper at 150-1? Sign me up. Nicolai’s got ball-striking prowess for days and, most importantly, the spunk to show up at Augusta National and genuinely believe he’ll leave with a green jacket. For six times the odds of fellow Masters rookie Ludvig Aberg, I like it. And if you’re looking for comatose sleepers? Look no further than Adrian Meronk.
Dylan Dethier
To-win: Xander Schauffele, +2,000. I will pick him until he wins or until he gets worse at golf. It seems like he’s still just getting better at golf. He might be better than anyone not named Scottie Scheffler at golf. That hasn’t translated to many wins of late, so I’m betting Augusta is the place that happens. (Also, Brooks Koepka at this same price!)
Sleeper pick: Erik van Rooyen, +15,000. He may be available at this price because he’s been so bad in major championships. But he’s a different player now! For bonus picks, gimme Stephan Jaeger and Si Woo Kim (both at 100-1), Ben An (150-1) plus Harris English (125-1) and let’s throw some darts.
How often favorites win tournaments (and when to bet on them)
Nick Dimengo
To-win: Shane Lowry, +4,000. While my buddy Dylan Dethier continues to shower Xander with heart eyes, my love affair is with the 37-year-old Irishman. Lowry checks off lots of boxes for me — he’s a former major champ (2019 Open Championship), has decent history at the Masters and knows how to manage those tricky greens at Augusta. If this guy gets hot with the putter … look out! Do. Not. Let. This. Man. Get. Hot!
Sleeper pick: Gary Woodland, +25,000. I know, Woodland’s still working his way back after having major surgery to remove a brain lesion last August, but isn’t Augusta where magic happens? There wouldn’t be a better story than to see the 39-year-old shock the golf world by earning his first-ever green jacket, so I’m here for it. Plus, he’s already a major champ — having won the 2019 U.S. Open — and he had his best-ever finish at the Masters last year (T14), so give me this and let’s all remember why we love the game of golf so much.
Connor Federico
To-win: Joaquin Niemann, +2,500. The Chilean didn’t qualify for his fifth Masters on world-ranking points. Instead, the young LIV golfer sought to earn an invitation from Augusta National in the past few months, playing in several events outside of the LIV circuit. ANGC couldn’t ignore his efforts to qualify nor his recent form, and neither can I. He won two of the first four LIV events of the season, and while he has yet to truly compete at a major, he continues to gradually improve at Augusta, finishing T16 last year.
Sleeper pick: Nick Dunlap, +25,000. Remember all the noise amateur Sam Bennett made last year at Augusta? Well, while Dunlap isn’t an amateur any longer, he and Bennett are the most recent U.S. Am champions — and I like this prodigious newcomer to play his way into the final group, just like Bennett did last year. For many who’ve watched Dunlap’s meteoric rise from college sophomore to PGA Tour winner in the past few months, it’s not a question of if Dunlap wins a green jacket, but when.
Jack Hirsh
To win: Scottie Scheffler, +400. I know Scottie Scheffler didn’t go to Alabama, but he’s starting to feel like their football team. Roll Tide Roll. The best player in the world heading into the week has won the Masters the past two years. I don’t see that changing this year.
Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +17,500!!!!!!! These odds are just silly. Criminal. They’re worse than Tiger’s or Phil’s (125-1). As disrespectful as leaving him off the Ryder Cup team would have been. Oh, that happened? Keegs is going to be eager to prove himself as a major champ once again. He had a good January with a playoff loss at Sony and a T11 at Pebble. Though, these odds are probably a product of missing three out of his past four cuts. While he never has recorded a top-10 at the Masters, he’s also missed the cut only once in seven tries.
Nick Piastowski
To-win: Bryson DeChambeau, +3,300. Listen, Scottie Scheffler should be your pick, and my colleagues here are eloquently telling you why. But should you be moved to scatter your chips around, there’s maybe something with DeChambeau. But that’s not my thought. Last week, ahead of their LIV Golf event, Brooks Koepka said this of his one-time nemesis: “I watch Bryson last year, and I believe — what was it, Singapore, Thailand, we played together? — and I started to watch what’s come for the last, I don’t know, eight months, I guess, about eight months now. Kind of watched that progress go, so that’s been cool. I can see him starting around the corner.” It’s not much — but for Koepka to talk of a foe ahead of a major is at least notable.
Sleeper pick: Si Woo Kim, +10,000. Heading into last week’s Texas Open, Kim was third in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on the PGA Tour. I like that. Just needs a hot putter for four days.
Four experts on how to bet on PGA Tour golf like a professional gambler
Josh Sens
To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +400. Xander Schauffele is beyond overdue to win this tournament, and he would if it weren’t for the fact that the best player in the world is pretty much playing his best imaginable golf. As much as I am leery of making the obvious pick, I can’t reason myself out of this one.
Sleeper pick: Corey Conners, +6,600. Prior to his missed cut at Augusta last year, Conners had three consecutive top 10s at the Masters. He also has a habit of making runs up the leaderboard in big events. Whether his putter can hold up is a question. Another question is whether 66-to-1 really counts as a dark horse. But tell me you wouldn’t be happy with that payout. I would. And I don’t see any longer shots that really appeal.
Jonathan Wall
To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +400. He’s ball-striking it like peak-Tiger and finally has a reliable putter. Good luck to everyone else at Augusta. You’re gonna need it.
Sleeper pick: Nicolai Hojgaard, +15,000. Going against conventional wisdom that states you should avoid first-timers at the Masters. I think the Dane has the pedigree to bust the trend.
Sean Zak
To-win: Bryson DeChambeau, +3,300. A crowning victory for the YouTube Golfer. In all seriousness, I’m not expecting anyone to touch Scheffler, but DeChambeau is among the few who have actually been playing good golf in recent months. It’s a nice price, too.
Sleeper pick: Russell Henley, +8,000. No one has played better golf while flying completely under the radar for the past 12 months. No one. Henley is ranked 15th by DataGolf, but was never really in the running for a Ryder Cup pick last fall. He’s really never been in the running for a bunch of victories, either. But it was just last year that he tied for fourth at Augusta.
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