2022 Valspar Championship odds, key statistics, best bets and PGA Tour picks

It’s not going to be easy for the 2022 Valspar Championship to follow up the madness that was the Players Championship. Rain delays, a Monday finish and a dramatic final stretch down 18 — it’s going to be nearly impossible.

However, there’s a strong field headed to the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort just outside of Tampa, Florida, that includes Dustin Johnson, who’s right off the heels of tying the tournament scoring record of 63 at the Players.

On Tipico, three players sit as co-betting favorites: Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, and Collin Morikawa (+1000).

Sam Burns, who played with eventual champion Cameron Smith and Paul Casey in the penultimate group in Ponte Vedra Beach, enters the week as the defending champion. His odds to win sit at +2000.

Key statistics

Driving accuracy: The Copperhead Course is the definition of tree-lined, so finding the short grass off the tee will be imperative for every player in the field.

Data Golf Information

Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. The Concession Golf Club (home of 2021 WGC-Workday), 2. Muirfield Village Golf Club (home of the Memorial), 3. TPC Twin Cities (home of the 3M Open)

Trending: 1. Viktor Hovland (last three starts: T-4, T-2, T-9), 2. Justin Thomas (T-8, 6, T-33), 3. Matthew Fitzpatrick (T-10, T-9, MC)

Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Justin Thomas (8.4 percent), 2. Viktor Hovland (7.9 percent), 3. Collin Morikawa (5.7 percent)

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Betting odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list.

Betting card for the 2022 Valspar Championship

Last week’s results: Players Championship

Daniel Berger – Top 20: Cash (+155)
Brooks Koepka – Top 20: Miss (MC)
Cameron Smith – Top 20: Cash (+170)
Matthew Fitzpatrick – Top 20: Miss (MC)
Rory McIlroy – Top 20: Miss (T-33)

Outrights: Collin Morikawa (MC), Rory McIlroy (T-33), Daniel Berger (T-13), Cameron Smith (1), Brooks Koepka (MC), Will Zalatoris (T-26)

+.25 units on positions plays, +26 units on outrights at Players.

+18.69 units on position plays in 2022. +37.5 units on outright plays in 2022.

Alex Noren plays his shot from the first tee during the final round of the Honda Classic. (Photo: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports)

Noren made his Valspar Championship debut last season, eventually tying for 21st. Over the last month, the Swede has played solid golf, finishing T-6 in Scottsdale, T-48 in L.A., T-5 at the Honda, and T-26 at the Players.

If he can find fairways, he’ll have a shot at claiming his first PGA Tour title in Tampa.

Kevin Kisner reacts to his shot on the 17th green during the second round of the 2022 Players Championship on the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on March 12, 2022, in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

Kisner made a run at the Players Championship, signing for 68 in rounds three and four to finish solo fourth. He came up short, but still made close to $1 million. Pretty good week.

The Bulldog missed the cut at the Valspar last season but finished inside the top 25 the year prior. When accuracy is key, Kisner is the man to look to. He ranks third on Tour this season in driving accuracy (71.15 percent), and 18th in greens in regulation (71.46 percent). If his putter gets hot, Sunday could be another big payday for the Aiken, South Carolina resident.

Russell Knox of Scotland plays his shot from the second tee during the first round of The Honda Classic at PGA National Resort And Spa on February 24, 2022 in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

The Scottsman has just been hanging around this season. Since missing the cut at the American Express, Knox has finished T-33 three times, T-55 at the Honda, and then broke out for the T-6 at the Players.

This season on Tour, Knox ranks 10th in driving accuracy (68.23 percent), second in greens in regulation (75.62%), and eighth in SG: Approach.

Since missing the cut here in 2017, he’s finished T-16, T-24, and T-21.

Abraham Ancer tees off on 9 of the Players Stadium Course Thursday, March 10, 2022, at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach. Thursday marked the opening round of golf for The Players Championship.

It’s been an odd month-plus for Ancer. He’s made four cuts in a row, hasn’t finished worse than T-43 but hasn’t finished better than T-33 (Players Championship).

The driver hasn’t been the problem as he sits seventh on Tour this season in driving accuracy (68.81 percent). It’s been his iron play. Ancer ranks 111th in SG: Approach this season and is only hitting 67.88 percent of greens (103rd on Tour).

However, in two appearances at the Valspar, Ancer has finished T-16 and solo fifth.

*Full betting card will be on my Twitter sometime Wednesday, March 16th