2022 Farmers Insurance Open odds, key statistics, and best bets

It’s time to get into the meat of the season. The Hawaiin swing is always fun, it’s nice to see the desert every once in a while (we’ll be back there next week), but once the schedule turns to Torrey Pines it’s officially golf season.

If it feels like we were just here, we were. Not only is the Farmers Insurance Open held at Torrey Pines every season, but the U.S. Open was held there as well. World. No. 1 Jon Rahm, who finished outside the top 10 in a golf tournament for the first time in seemingly five years at the American Express last week, took home the trophy for his first major championship win last June.

Our arrival at Torrey means another thing: The season of big ballparks is here. It’d be extremely surprising if the likes of a Branden Todd type won the Farmers (Todd took a ricochet shot there, but just trying to paint the picture).

Course(s)

Torrey Pines (North)
7,258 yards
Par 72

Torrey Pines (South)
7,765 yards
Par 72

The field will play each course over the first two days of the tournament, but once the cut is made, the weekend rounds will be played exclusively on the South Course.

Another quick programming note: Tournament days are Wednesday, January 26 – Saturday, January 29 (Tour doesn’t want to compete with the NFL on Sunday, and after last Sunday, it’s tough to blame them).

Weather

Key stats

Total driving: The North Course is not only the easier of the two venues (by a wide margin, in fact), but each player will only see it once. Success at the South Course is more vital to a player’s success this week so we’ll focus there. The South is a tight piece of property, with punishing rough, and for the cherry on top, is LONG. Because of all that, we’ll be targeting guys who are studs off the tee box.

Strokes Gained: Approach: Data Golf has approach play second to only driving distance this week. There will be a lot of long irons into greens and the guys will have to take advantage of opportunities when they find themselves with wedges in hand.

Data Golf information

Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. Congaree Golf Club, 2. Quail Hollow, 3. Corales Golf Club

Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Jon Rahm (11.1 percent), 2. Justin Thomas (6.4 percent), 3. Bryson DeChambeau (4.5 percent)

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Betting odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list.

Betting card for the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open

Last week’s results (American Express)

Matthew Wolff (Top 20): Miss
Scottie Scheffler (Top 10): Miss
Talor Gooch (Top 20): Miss
Adam Hadwin (Top 20): Miss
Seamus Power (Top GB+Ireland): Hit (+220)

Overall, down 1.8 units in the desert. Tough week, but we can bounce back.

+2.69 units on position plays in 2022.

Tony Finau – Top 20 (+135)

Finau is second to only Rahm in cumulative scoring at the Farmers since 2017 (Rahm -51, Finau -46). He didn’t have his best stuff at the Amex last week finishing in a tie for 40th.

However, his worst finish at the Farmers is T-24 (2015) and has since signed for four T-6 performances or better.

Maverick McNealy – Top 20 (+230)

Maverick McNealy of the United States plays his shot from the second tee during the first round of the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba on the El Camaleon course on November 04, 2021, in Playa del Carmen. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

McNealy is off to a great start this season with five finishes of T-27 or better (including a solo 2nd to Max Homa at the Fortinet).

He doesn’t have a long resume at the Farmers Insurance Open, however, he’s two for three making the weekend including a top 20 finish in 2020 (T-29 in 2018).

Ryan Palmer – Top 20 (+300)

Ryan Palmer hits his tee shot on the fourth hole during the final round of the 2020 Sony Open in Hawaii at Waialae Country Club. (Photo by Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports)

Palmer’s last start came at the Sony Open where he finished T-12. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open last year, but at Farmers, Palmer has finished T-21 or better in four consecutive starts (including 2 runner-ups). He’s 45 but still averages 307 off the box, long enough to keep up at Torrey.

Will Zalatoris – Top 20 (+155)

Will Zalatoris plays a shot on the 16th hole during the second round of The American Express at the Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West on January 21, 2022, in La Quinta, California. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

Coming off a top 10 in the desert, Willy Z finished T-7 here last season. Seems to play better at tough venues, evidenced by his top 10s at Augusta, Bay Hill, Kiawah Island, Winged Foot, and Torrey last season.

Joaquin Niemann – Top South American (+250)

Joaquin Niemann plays his shot from the tenth tee during the second round of the RSM Classic golf tournament at Sea Island Golf Club – Plantation Course. (Photo: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports)

Niemann is three-for-three making the cut here. His ball-striking is always good, the issue is the putter. If he’s tightened up his short game over the last few months (hasn’t made a start on Tour since the RSM in November) he should play well.

Luke List – Top 20 (+300)

Luke List hits from the second hole tee box during the second round of The Genesis Invitational golf tournament at Riviera Country Club. (Phot: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)

His last four starts at the Farmers, starting in 2018: T-12, T-40, T-36, and T-10. In his last seven starts on Tour: five starts of T-22 or better including four T-17 or better finishes with two of those being top 10s.

AKA: He’s playing really good golf and is headed to a venue where he feels comfortable.