2022 American Express best bets, odds, key statistics, and more

Last week hurt, not going to lie to you. Russell Henley, who was not only on the card for a top 20 but an outright win, was leading Hideki Matsuyama by five shots at the turn. Five. But the Masters champ came storming back, eventually beating the Bulldog in a one-hole playoff after sticking a 3-wood from 276 yards to about three feet.

Tough pill to swallow.

Anyway, it’s time to move on. This week is the American Express, and after COVID-19 forced the tournament into numerous changes in 2021, it’s back in full force this year. The tournament’s three-course rotation returns, along with a pro-am. For the first three rounds, the pros will be paired with a group of amateurs before a 54-hole cut is made and the remaining professionals will play their final round at the Stadium Course.

It’s also the first week where we get a glimpse of the new ESPN+ PGA Tour live service (we had it in Hawaii but in a limited capacity). Oh, and the field’s loaded.

Course(s)

PGA West (Stadium): Par 72, 7,113 yards
La Quinta Country Club: Par 72, 7,060 yards
PGA West (Nicklaus Tournament Course): Par 72, 7,159 yards

Last year’s top 5

1. Si Woo Kim
2. Patrick Cantlay
3. Cam Davis
4. Tony Finau
5. Abraham Ancer, Doug Ghim, Michael Thompson

Weather

Key stats

It’s difficult to know what’s important at this event. It’s played on three courses and only one of them records ShotLink data (Stadium). Course history and recent form will play a lot into the picks this week. However, Data Golf does note driving distance as an important aspect while playing the Stadium Course — something to keep in mind.

Data Golf information

Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. Accordia Golf Narashino CC, 2. TPC Louisiana, 3. Caves Valley Golf Club

Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Jon Rahm (13.1 percent), 2. Patrick Cantlay (9.2 percent), 3. Scottie Scheffler (4.6 percent)

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Betting odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list.

Betting card for the 2022 American Express (& Abu Dhabi HSBC)

Last week’s results (Sony Open)

Corey Conners – Top 20: Cash, +130
Charles Howell III – Top 20: Miss
Kevin Kisner – Top 20: Cash, +162
Russell Henley – Top 20: Cash, +162
+354 (+3.54 units) at Waialae

+4.49 units in 2022.

Rory McIlroy — Top 10 (EVEN)

Rors has played here five times since 2014 — he hasn’t finished worse than T-3. Pretty good.

He’s also my guy, so have to have him on the card somewhere.

Matthew Wolff — Top 20 (+155)

Matthew Wolff plays his shot from the third tee during the final round of the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course on November 14, 2021, in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

Wolffy hasn’t played since the Houston Open, but he’s off to a tremendous start to the season. In four events so far, he’s finished T-17 (Sanderson Farms), 2 (Shriners), T-5 (Mayakoba), and T-11 (Houston Open).

He has yet to post a top 40 finish here, but it’s impossible to ignore this guy at an event that requires you to make an immense amount of birds. He’s 11th on Tour in birdie average, and first in scoring average.

Scottie Scheffler — Top 10 (+210)

Scottie Scheffler reacts on the 5th hole during the third round of The RSM Classic on the Seaside Course at Sea Island Resort on November 20, 2021, in St Simons Island, Georgia. (Photo: Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images)

Scheffler wasn’t around for the weekend a year ago, but back in 2020, the Texan snagged a solo third in the desert. He’s played in six events so far this season, three of which ended in top 4 finishes (two runner-ups).

The Ryder Cupper ranks inside the top 15 in birdie average on Tour, which again, will help around these tracks.

Talor Gooch — Top 20 (+125)

Talor Gooch hits his tee shot on the 11th hole during the second round of the Sony Open in Hawaii golf tournament at Waialae Country Club. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Gooch holds the second-best cumulative score at the American Express over the last three seasons. He’s also finished no worse than T-21 in those appearances highlighted by a solo fourth in 2019.

He’s coming off two solid weeks in Hawaii, shooting in the 60s seven of his eight rounds.